Tag: Fed

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Leave a comment Two Simple Causes of Stock Market Crash Leave a comment

Two Simple Causes of Stock Market Crash

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By now, everyone has seen a daily deterioration of the global stock markets. The US has been driving the movement with declines between 1-4%+ and only a smattering of mini rallies of 1-3%+. The S&P

Leave a comment The Fed’s Inflation Trolley Problem Leave a comment

The Fed’s Inflation Trolley Problem

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One of the more interesting philosophical and ethics experiments is the trolley problem. It’s a fictional scenario with varying mechanics, but let’s use this one. You are a driver of a trolley. The trolley brakes

Leave a comment How to Screw Up the Economy: Fed Minutes Leave a comment

How to Screw Up the Economy: Fed Minutes

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Key Takeaway: Fed is waking up from its 2021 inflation slumber. Key Question: Will Fed over-react with a combined interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction to damage economy in 2023? Key FOMC minutes stat: “Balance sheet”

Leave a comment 3 Central Bank Meetings Last Week: all accept current inflation Leave a comment

3 Central Bank Meetings Last Week: all accept current inflation

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Major Central Bank Meetings Last Week Despite the sound global economic recovery and improving outlook, rising inflation levels continue to be a major source of concern and focus for global central banks. According to the International

Leave a comment US Delta Surge Peak: mid-September Leave a comment

US Delta Surge Peak: mid-September

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There is a global infection surge of the Delta COVID variant driving governments and companies to enact policies to reduce the risk. New Zealand, China (selective provinces/ports) and Hawaii are prime examples of governments moving

Leave a comment The Manchin Fed Leave a comment

The Manchin Fed

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Let’s do a quick run through two topics impacting the economy and markets. Federal Reserve monetary policy. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. This was not a surprise. (Statement and Presser)What

Leave a comment The Biggest Driver of Uncertainty Leave a comment

The Biggest Driver of Uncertainty

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Let’s get to what’s driving the markets, causing stocks to sink, crypto to crater and interest rates to rise: uncertainty over inflation. But it’s not just that, it’s about the reaction to inflation. When will the

Leave a comment Did We Just Hit Peak Growth? Leave a comment

Did We Just Hit Peak Growth?

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Today, the US BLS releases its monthly employment data. The expectations were for 950k NFP with some predicting as high as 1.4m new jobs created. The unemployment rate was expected to fall from 6.0% in

Leave a comment Biden and Fed: here’s what we learned for the economy Leave a comment

Biden and Fed: here’s what we learned for the economy

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Both the Fed and Biden had big meetings this week. Biden gave a “this-is-not-a-state-of-the-union” state of the union address on part 2 of his “infrastructure” plans. The Fed had a “we’re-not-tapering-and-inflation-is-temporary” meeting on monetary policy.

Comments Infrastructure Plan: passing and impact Comments

Infrastructure Plan: passing and impact

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Key Take-away and Doing My Best to State the Obvious: For the economy and D.C., a $1.9 trillion spending plan on infrastructure, climate change and housing risks over-heating both the economy and the political environment.