Category: Economy

23 posts
Leave a comment Q4 DC outlook: unsavory market leftovers Leave a comment

Q4 DC outlook: unsavory market leftovers

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This has been a week of political discovery for the markets and the economy. Three major events occurred. Democrats and Republicans moved to keep the government funded until December 3rd. A House vote attempt on

Leave a comment Supply Chains: why the mess and when will it end? Leave a comment

Supply Chains: why the mess and when will it end?

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“This quarter, and I think we’ll continue to see that a little bit in Q2 and Q3, had some of the most difficult supply chain challenges that we’ve ever experienced in the life of Tesla

Leave a comment What McDonald’s can tell us about the labor shortage Leave a comment

What McDonald’s can tell us about the labor shortage

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The US releases its monthly unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data on Friday. The charts below show the rapid recovery in jobs since the reopening as over 14.7m jobs have been created. Yet, the country

Leave a comment The Big Infrastructure Bills: even larger than you think Leave a comment

The Big Infrastructure Bills: even larger than you think

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For everyone trying to catch a summer break without watching Washington, I wish you best of luck because they are working hard to hammer out an infrastructure deal. This initial $1.2T bipartisan deal will set

Leave a comment The Manchin Fed Leave a comment

The Manchin Fed

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Let’s do a quick run through two topics impacting the economy and markets. Federal Reserve monetary policy. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. This was not a surprise. (Statement and Presser)What

Leave a comment Inflation Politics Leave a comment

Inflation Politics

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The inflation story keeps getting legs as more and more companies are citing inflation concerns in their investor calls and interviews. As a matter of fact, The word “inflation” is being mentioned in post-earnings conference

Leave a comment The Biggest Driver of Uncertainty Leave a comment

The Biggest Driver of Uncertainty

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Let’s get to what’s driving the markets, causing stocks to sink, crypto to crater and interest rates to rise: uncertainty over inflation. But it’s not just that, it’s about the reaction to inflation. When will the

Leave a comment Breaking Trust with the Fed on Inflation Leave a comment

Breaking Trust with the Fed on Inflation

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The Fed has made it clear they will tolerate 3%+ inflation for a period of time to make up for the low rates of inflation during 2020. The Fed is likely hoping/guesstimating that slow growth

Leave a comment Did We Just Hit Peak Growth? Leave a comment

Did We Just Hit Peak Growth?

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Today, the US BLS releases its monthly employment data. The expectations were for 950k NFP with some predicting as high as 1.4m new jobs created. The unemployment rate was expected to fall from 6.0% in

Leave a comment Biden and Fed: here’s what we learned for the economy Leave a comment

Biden and Fed: here’s what we learned for the economy

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Both the Fed and Biden had big meetings this week. Biden gave a “this-is-not-a-state-of-the-union” state of the union address on part 2 of his “infrastructure” plans. The Fed had a “we’re-not-tapering-and-inflation-is-temporary” meeting on monetary policy.