Tag Archives: US GDP

Positives Taking Back the Markets

The markets are now in the process of unwinding the double-dip scenario that had reached a zenith in August when jobless claims were 500k. Yesterday, SF Fed Director of Research stated, “Our forecast at the San Francisco Fed is for real GDP growth of about 2½ percent this year. We expect growth to pick up steam next year to between 3½ and 4 percent.” This is the first time I’ve seen this strong of a positive outlook for next year and it’s encouraging.

At the beginning of August, I put out a list of 15 positives that were needed to … …READ MORE

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Potential Shift in Newsflow

As I wrote yesterday, the market is pricing in a slower US GDP for Q3. 50-75K private payroll growth is not enough to drop the unemployment rate, but it’s enough to avoid a double dip recession. It will just feel like a DD as it will dominate the newsflow due the upcoming US election. Yet…..in our 24/7 news cycle, I definitely feel that focus is myopic and trends toward the negative for impact. Therefore, we are going to need a sustained, positive theme to be established before a shift can occur.

The better-than-expected German & Eurozone GDP is a good … …READ MORE

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