Tag Archives: President Obama

The MidTerm Elections, QE2, Lame Duck, and 2011!

By Andrew Busch | Published: October 26, 2010

My overarching view is that the markets have heavily priced in large QE2 by the Federal Reserve, a large Republican victory and an extension of thye Bush tax cuts. I believe markets will be disappointed by actual outcomes and will pull back from Risk-On trades. Until January, I expect Risk-Off Twist trading: lower equities, higher US dollar and mixed bonds.

November Schedule:

11.2 Midterm Elections

11.3 FOMC announcement

11.4 ECB and BOE meetings

11.5 US NFP and Unemployment

11.11 G20 meetings in South Korea

11.15 Lame Duck Session Begins

11.30 Jobless Benefit Extension expires

Mid-Term Elections

To take control, the … …READ MORE

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The Way Forward is Looking Better

By Andrew Busch | Published: September 8, 2010

Fact one, small to medium sized firms are the drivers of job growth in the United States. Fact two, the government needs to engage in policies to assist these firms that create conditions that encourage risk taking and reward that comes from that risk taking. Fact three, the government needs to reduce burdens on these firms that discourage investment or increase their costs of doing business. To create employment, we hold the above to be self-evident and to be true.

If we review the last two years, we see variations of assistance provided by the government that not only miss … …READ MORE

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A Step in the Right Direction

By Andrew Busch | Published: September 7, 2010

Also, up on CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39038675

Over the weekend, President Obama unleashed a fusillade of economic proposals meant to not only raise the nation’s hopes of economic recovery (just around the corner), but also to raise the flagging poll numbers of the Democratic party.

Here are the kenspeckel polling numbers that give Democrats a queasy feeling. According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 40 percent of registered voters say they have more confidence in Democrats and 38 percent say they have more trust in Republicans.

Sounds okay, right? The problem is three months ago, Democrats had a 12-point advantage. The … …READ MORE

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S&P Rattles the US Downgrade Sabre

By Andrew Busch | Published: August 26, 2010

In an interview with Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s Ratings John Chambers said, “It is very important for the credit standing of the United States that the Congress considers very carefully what the fiscal commission proposes…It is very important for Congress to take the required steps.” Chambers is the chairman of S&P’s sovereign rating committee that just downgraded Ireland from AA to AA-.

This follows up the comments by S&P in July that warned the U.S. does not have unlimited fiscal flexibility. S&P still maintains their AAA rating for the U.S. but clearly is increasing the rhetoric and pressure to … …READ MORE

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China…..Ntg Yet!

By Andrew Busch | Published: April 8, 2010

Here’s the US Treasury’s terse statement on the Geithner visit to Beijing:

This evening in Beijing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, President Barack Obama’s special representative, met with his counterpart Vice Premier Wang Qishan of the State Council and special representative of Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The two sides exchanged views on U.S.-China economic relations, the global economic situation and issues relating to the upcoming economic track dialogue of the second U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, to be held in Beijing in late May.

Here are my major takeaways:

US Treasury Tim Geithner met with Vice Premier Wang Qishan and … …READ MORE

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China + Free Trade=Jobs

By Andrew Busch | Published: March 12, 2010

Thursday, President Obama addressed the key subject of US trade policy. Last year, the Obama administration set a goal of adding two million jobs to the economy by doubling exports in the next five years. The added benefit is that export related jobs are generally higher paying than domestically focused work with the likely exception of government jobs. Last October, I met with senior US Treasury officials who adamantly supported this approach.

Yesterday, we also got the US trade deficit number for the month of January which improved 6.5% to -37.3 billion. The breakdown by region in billions tells the … …READ MORE

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Brown Victory=Obama Change

By Andrew Busch | Published: January 20, 2010

The victory in Massachusetts for Republican Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley is seen by political strategists as a repudiation of the current health care legislation and the policies of the Obama administration. The Washington Post writes, “Republican Scott Brown’s win in a liberal state will do more than vastly complicate Obama’s bid to overhaul the U.S. health care system. It will send his party into a painful re-examination of voters’ anger and desires ahead of the November elections for Congress, governorships and state legislatures.”

Yesterday, I wrote about the ways that Democrats could still pass the bill if Brown … …READ MORE

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US Health Care Bill a Concern for the Chinese

By Andrew Busch | Published: November 16, 2009

Over the weekend, China’s chief banking regulator sharply criticized the US Federal Reserve and the monetary policy of the United States. Liu Mingkan said that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s promise to keep U.S. interest rates at extraordinarily low levels for an extended period “has already led to a massive U.S. dollar carry trade and massive speculation.” He said that the weak U.S. dollar and low U.S. interest rates are creating “unavoidable risks for the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging economies” and that the situation is “seriously impacting global asset prices and encouraging speculation in stock and property markets” … …READ MORE

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