Tag Archives: g20

G20 Who Will Lead?

By Andrew Busch | Published: November 10, 2010

China’s trade surplus has soared and stands over 25% above the pre-crisis 2008 levels. This will be red meat for those pointing to China to address their current account imbalance as well as the weak currency issue. It will be almost impossible for China to state that they must be cautious in allowing the currency to appreciate due to a fragile export sector. However, China will not be the only country under fire.

With the heavy criticism of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 program and the general dismissal of US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s 4% current account plan, the US appears … …READ MORE

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What to Watch for the Week…and Beyond

By Andrew Busch | Published: October 18, 2010

Overnight, the US dollar has had a rally on what I’d call the “We-can-print-money-too!” theory of central bank easing. We had ECB head Claude Trichet refute Bundesbank head Axel Weber’s assertion that the ECB should stop buying bonds. Also, we had two groups (E&Y, CEBR) state that the UK economy will be flat in Q1 2011 and that former policy maker David Blanchflower said, “We (UK) are desperately in danger of a double dip and the last thing you do in a recession is make things worse. The BOE unfortunately looks like the only ‘plan B’ the government has, but … …READ MORE

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G20 Affirms Weak $

By Andrew Busch | Published: November 9, 2009

Over the weekend, the US dollar was pummeled as it fell against almost every major currency and every minor currency except one. Hmm, which one would that be? Before we get to that, let’s run through the top seven reasons the greenback got whacked.

1. IMF report saying $ overvalued.

2. G20 no mention of US dollar in statement

3. G20 no stimulus exit.

4. China warns US to reduce deficit.

5. US House passes HC bill that expands deficit $1.1 trillion.

6. India to exit stimulus.

7. Better than expected German IP at +2.7% ve 1.0%.

All of these … …READ MORE

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CNBC Today at 1PM ET!

By Andrew Busch | Published: September 25, 2009

Today at 1PM ET, I’ll be appearing on CNBC’s Power Lunch discussing the G20 meeting.… …READ MORE

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G20 What You Need To Know

By Andrew Busch | Published: September 25, 2009

Here are the major points of interest on the G20 as the details leak out on what will be in the communiqué.

1. There will be broad agreement on the need to reign in bankers pay. They will attempt to provide rules to tie compensation to risk. and to tighten/capital requirements.

2. There will be broad agreement on financial regulatory reform with the specific plank of tightening/increasing bank capital requirements.

3. There will be broad agreement to be deliberate on withdrawing stimulus to their economies and to cooperate/coordinate the exits.

4. There will be broad agreement to increase the participation … …READ MORE

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August Markets….

By Andrew Busch | Published: August 27, 2009

Tough to earn a living trading and predicting market movements at this time of year.  Good example is the massive short squeeze in the financial stocks that is currently occuring.

Couple of dates to keep in mind:  September 20th the UN rules on Iran and September 24th-25th is the G20 in Pittsburgh.

Congress will be back in session and deciding on what to do with health care.  Byrd wants it renamed Kennedy Health Care bill to spur it along……

October will bring the 60th anniversary of the Chinese revolution as well.  Might get some internal issues going around that time … …READ MORE

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Russia and China's Currency Plans

By Andrew Busch | Published: April 3, 2009

Over the last two weeks, both China and Russia have made headlines with their unhappiness over the current financial world order. The Chinese are worried over the future of their holdings of both the US dollar and US debt. The Russian’s are concerned about the use of the US dollar as a reserve currency and likely worried over the use of the US dollar in the pricing of their chief export oil.

In his speech to the G-20, Chinese President Hu Jintao said that the International Monetary Fund should increase its surveillance of the economic, and particularly the monetary, policies … …READ MORE

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G20 Surprise

By Andrew Busch | Published: April 2, 2009

On CBS, Geithner says “Of Course” when asked if he would oust CEO’s from TARP banks that are non-performing. This is precisely what I warned about yesterday.

The draft G20 statement apparently has everything for everyone and the euphoria in the markets is palpable with equity markets rallying strongly, bond yields are higher, and the US dollar is lower. There even appears to be an agreement between Medvedev and Obama for a one third cut in strategic arms without having to look into each other’s soul. (Which is probably a good thing for both of them.) Details on the G20 … …READ MORE

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Return to the Downside

By Andrew Busch | Published: March 30, 2009

Over the weekend, the bad news has returned with the volume turned up to a Spin Tap level of 11. This has shaken the equity markets hard. This is what I was concerned about last week and why I thought we’d trade ranges. To recap, my call was: “We’re going to need to spend time bouncing around in ranges from the S&P 500 (780-840) to the 10 year note (2.5% to 2.9%) to the US dollar (82-87) before we can gain certainty that the worst is over and that our past isn’t going to catch up to us.” Well, the … …READ MORE

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Weekend Ideas: AIG, China, G20, US Debt, and Ben Bernanke

By Andrew Busch | Published: March 15, 2009

WW

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