Tag Archives: Euro

Money in Motion Trade:

By Andrew Busch | Published: May 19, 2011

From CNBC’s Squawk on the Street appearance yesterday, I proposed this trade:

Buy Euro/Sell Jpy
Entry 114.00
S/L 112.75
T/P 119.50
4.4:1 return
• The IMF scandal, concerns over Greece default, and easier than expected ECB comments have driven down the euro ag the US dollar and yen.
• All three have obscured the better than expected GDP and the still large interest rate differentials favoring the Euro.
• The US data continues to surprise to the downside and the Japanese data are pointing to a recession.
• The Bank of Japan meets on May 20th and the Japanese government … …READ MORE

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My Money in Motion Trade from Friday: Sell Euros/Buy Gbp

By Andrew Busch | Published: April 5, 2011

Two ways to play the eur.gbp trend channel.

Sell near the top and/or buy near the bottom.

Take a look at the graph of eur.gbp.

It’s an upward trending channel that has been in place since Valentine’s Day. It’s a fantastic channel in that its hit both sides over 8 times.

The width of the channel is 170 pts.

The idea is to buy when it hits the bottom end of the channel and sell when it hits the top end.

Since we are trending up, I think well hit the top end.

Hers the trade:

Sell EUR-Buy GBP at … …READ MORE

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CNBC MIM Trade

By Andrew Busch | Published: March 24, 2011

Yesterday, I went on Squawk on the Street and presented explained this trade:

Buy euros

Entry 1.4060

S/L 1.3950

T/P 1.4250

2:1 return

For good money management, we can tweak this trade today by cutting back risk and leaving a stop at our entry point. Here’s the trade adjustment:

Sell half the position now (1.4140-50)

S/l 1.4050

T/P 1.4250

Risk 10 pips to make 190 on half the position or 95 on full position. Currency trading is all about adjusting and taking the right risk when you want the risk.… …READ MORE

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The illusion of an impervious Euro

By Andrew Busch | Published: March 7, 2011

Let’s take a quick spin around the global currency markets to see what the major topics.

First, the price of oil continues to soar as the events in Libya have taken 1 million barrels per day out of the global supply. Brent crude is trading above $188 and Europe is feeling the pain as petrol prices go up. Libyan produced oil went to Italy and now Italy is getting refugees instead from MENA (Middle East North Africa) countries.

Next, the European Union members have been meeting to decide the future of the EFSF (bailout fund) and the future of the … …READ MORE

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Top FX Themes and Trades

By Andrew Busch | Published: January 21, 2011

1. Euro Strength. From a low of 1.2875 on January 10th, the Euro currency has rallied over 5.4% and is ending the week at new highs. Moreover, it’s doing it against all currencies not just the US dollar. EurJpy, EurGbp and EurChf have all made new highs since January 10th. The main reason for the rally is a reduction in uncertainty over the European debt crisis (EDC). Credit default swaps and 2 year debt spreads to German debt have shown significant easing. The EDC appears to be running on a cycle that has a shortened duration for each subsequent occurrence. … …READ MORE

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Fantastic FX Four

By Andrew Busch | Published: January 10, 2011

1. The ECB meets next week. The markets continue to abuse the Euro against most major currencies as concerns over European banks remain strong. As an indication of the uncertainty, the Swiss central bank has excluded Irish government debt from a list of assets considered eligible as collateral for its repo deals. Also, the ECB has stated they are concerned over the Irish government’s ability to force losses on the collateral it accepts for loans to commercial banks. These stories along with others (Belgium) have spooked the European sovereign debt markets and have forced spreads to German bonds and CDS … …READ MORE

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Good Investment Cycle Spin

By Andrew Busch | Published: July 15, 2010

On Tuesday, I wrote about the investment cycle change that was occurring in the financial markets. The critical point was that we are now in a shift and that we needed additional positive newsflow to continue to push the direction. From an earnings standpoint, this has occurred with solid numbers coming our and upside surprises beating downside. Also, we’ve had a successful Greek debt auction, we’ve had a successful Spanish auction and we’ve seen 5 yr sovereign credit ease from a peak of 267 in June to 218 today. Lastly, we’ve had global economic data that has been mainly positive … …READ MORE

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Three Week Euro Scenario

By Andrew Busch | Published: April 27, 2010

There are two known dates and one unknown date that will cause volatility and uncertainty surrounding the Euro. All three will likely occur in the next three weeks.

May 9th is the election date in the most populous German state Rhine-Westphalia. This mandates that German PM Merkel drag her feet on a bailout of Greece. A bailout is very unpopular and Merkel will lose important seats in the Bundestag if she strongly supports the bailout.

May 16th is the date when E8.5 billion of Greek debt needs to be rolled over. With Greek 2yr notes yielding 14.5%, Greece can’t afford … …READ MORE

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EU Vested Interest in Greece

By Andrew Busch | Published: February 11, 2010

The on-going saga for Greece and the European Union continues and the latest headlines are these:

RTRS-PURCHASES OF GREEK BONDS BY EURO ZONE STATE-OWNED BANKS IS ONE OF OPTIONS CONSIDERED IN EU PLAN TO SUPPORT GREECE-EU SOURCE
RTRS-EUROGROUP ON MONDAY TO DISCUSS DIFFERENT OPTIONS OF SUPPORT FOR GREECE -EU SOURCE
RTRS-SUPPORT OPTIONS FOR GREECE COULD VARY FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY -EU SOURCE
RTRS-GREEK SUPPORT MECHANISM COULD BE STRUCTURED IN STAGES DEPENDING ON LEVEL OF NEED -EU SOURCE
RTRS-OBSTACLE TO MORE DETAILED AGREEMENT ON GREECE SUPPORT NOW IS LACK OF GERMAN JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER CONSENT-EU SOURCE
RTRS-COUNTRIES COULD PARTICIPATE IN SUPPORT … …READ MORE

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