Tag Archives: double dip

Positives Taking Back the Markets

By Andrew Busch | Published: September 9, 2010

The markets are now in the process of unwinding the double-dip scenario that had reached a zenith in August when jobless claims were 500k. Yesterday, SF Fed Director of Research stated, “Our forecast at the San Francisco Fed is for real GDP growth of about 2½ percent this year. We expect growth to pick up steam next year to between 3½ and 4 percent.” This is the first time I’ve seen this strong of a positive outlook for next year and it’s encouraging.

At the beginning of August, I put out a list of 15 positives that were needed to … …READ MORE

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Recession 2011?

By Andrew Busch | Published: August 17, 2010

The San Francisco Federal Reserve has published a report that is generating a lot of buzz in the financial markets. Entitled, “Future Recession Risks”, the paper reviews the predictive capabilities of the US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. This report has been cited in several articles providing outlook for a double dip recession and generating additional angst for investors.

As most know, the LEI is published once a month by a private research group in New York City. It is composite comprised of 10 indicators that are known to swing up or down well in advance of the rest of … …READ MORE

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Theme Shift: US Bad, Europe Good

By Andrew Busch | Published: June 18, 2010

Bloomberg reports today that, “The European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests on the region’s lenders was welcomed by shareholders seeking more transparency. Investors still want to know how tough the terms of the tests will be.” This is what I’ve been warning about for some time about how doing stress tests are great, but there are at least two more steps that need to be taken for reduction of uncertainty over European banks and countries.

The best indicator that things are calming down is that debt issuance and commercial paper issuance are coming back. Spain had … …READ MORE

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