Tag Archives: debt

Why Greece will restructure and what form it will take

The European debt crisis continues to remain headline material and continues to negatively impact the financial markets. This is happening despite the efforts of the ECB, the IMF and the European Union to reform the periphery and to provide liquidity to those sovereign nations. Greece is the linchpin for a solution and resolution of the crisis. The essential element missing is this: how to do a Greek debt restructuring. Let’s review what’s happened and what could happen given the rich history of global debt restructuring.
There are two paths that Europe can go down to deal with Greece, Ireland and … …READ MORE

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European Fiscal Timeline

Nov 24: Ireland expected to unveil its 4-year fiscal plan (including austerity measures to be taken)

Nov 24 Irish bi-elections (coalition may lose seats)

Nov 26: Portugal’s Parliament votes on 2011 budget proposal

Dec 2: ECB meeting/Spain holds bond auction

Dec 3: Ireland releases tax receipts for Nov

Dec 7: Ireland set to unveil Budget/may vote on it

Dec 10: France vote on the 2011 budget

Dec 14: France vote of confidence (after Dec 10 budget vote)

Dec 16: Spain holds bond auction Dec 16-17: EU leaders summit (will work on draft of permanent crisis mechanism to replace expiring EFSF … …READ MORE

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German Vote=TARP Vote Part 2

Here are the latest comments by European financial officials:

01:36 05May10 RTRS-GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS GREEK AID PLAN IS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF EUROPE AND GERMANY IN EUROPE
01:37 05May10 RTRS-GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS WITHOUT US THERE CAN BE NO DECISION WHICH IS ECONOMICALLY SUSTAINABLE
01:49 05May10 RTRS-GERMANY’S MERKEL SAYS AID MUST COME TO AVOID RISK OF CONTAGION
03:17 05May10 RTRS-ECB’S WEBER – GREEK DEFAULT WOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR THE STABILTY OF EURO ZONE, FINANCIAL SYSTEM
03:17 05May10 RTRS-ECB’S WEBER – SEE THREAT OF SERIOUS CONTAGION EFFECTS FOR OTHER EURO ZONE STATES
06:20 05May10 RTRS-GERMAN FIN MKT WATCHDOG BAFIN CHIEF SAYS … …READ MORE

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Greece Stains:

Today at 4:30 PM ET, I’ll be appearing on CNBC’s the Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo discussing the potential for a Greek rescue package this weekend.

All the stories yesterday on Greek banks were very ugly. They appear to be losing repo counterparties analogous to what occurred with Bear Stearns in 2008. Greek banks have seen an outflow of E10 billion in the first two months of 2010. Moody’s downgraded all four major banks in Greece last week by one notch and these banks dropped about 4% yesterday. Oddly enough, Greek banks are the largest holders of Greek government debt.… …READ MORE

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We Want It, We Want It, We Want It…….It Costs How Much?

Today, the Euro came under pressure with after a series of stories have emerged over the last 24 hours on the details for a Greek bailout. Denial, delusion, and unstable come to mind for the situation as the markets have already voted with their feet by sending the Euro down 150 pts and sending Greek bonds yield up 27 basis points to 6.83%.

Pointing fingers elsewhere, Greece’s Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos stated that their type of debt problems are likely to spread further in the Euro Zone and that Portugal could be next in line for attack. Remember, this … …READ MORE

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EU Vested Interest in Greece

The on-going saga for Greece and the European Union continues and the latest headlines are these:

RTRS-PURCHASES OF GREEK BONDS BY EURO ZONE STATE-OWNED BANKS IS ONE OF OPTIONS CONSIDERED IN EU PLAN TO SUPPORT GREECE-EU SOURCE
RTRS-EUROGROUP ON MONDAY TO DISCUSS DIFFERENT OPTIONS OF SUPPORT FOR GREECE -EU SOURCE
RTRS-SUPPORT OPTIONS FOR GREECE COULD VARY FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY -EU SOURCE
RTRS-GREEK SUPPORT MECHANISM COULD BE STRUCTURED IN STAGES DEPENDING ON LEVEL OF NEED -EU SOURCE
RTRS-OBSTACLE TO MORE DETAILED AGREEMENT ON GREECE SUPPORT NOW IS LACK OF GERMAN JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER CONSENT-EU SOURCE
RTRS-COUNTRIES COULD PARTICIPATE IN SUPPORT … …READ MORE

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Greece Fire Or Can PIIGS Fly?

Today at 11:00 AM ET, I’ll be appearing on CNBC’s the Call discussing the potential bailout of Greece by the European Union.

Before anyone can savor the possible bailout/backing of Greece debt by Germany, we get these series of comments:

GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS GREECE MUST PURSUE SUSTAINED PATH TO CONSOLIDATION
GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS THERE IS NO DECISION ON AID FOR GREECE, AND IT’S NOT PENDING EITHER
GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS IT’S NOT GERMANY’S JOB TO TELL GREECE WHAT IT NEEDS TO DO
GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS NO DECISION PENDING ON AID FOR GREECE
GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS THE … …READ MORE

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The Debt-Interest Rate Paradox

There appears to be a race to see who can warn and downgrade the most from the ratings agencies. Yesterday, Fitch downgraded Mexico’s foreign currency rating to BBB on the ability of the government to meet their fiscal obligations (reduced maneuverability of fiscal accounts) and their increasing debt to GDP. Today, they warned about Japanese banks saying that weaker loan quality may put pressure on Japan’s “mega” banks’ performance and in turn capitalization, which remains somewhat weak by international standards, especially in terms of the “core” capital levels

The FT reports that S&P released a study of the world’s major … …READ MORE

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Weekend Ideas: AIG, China, G20, US Debt, and Ben Bernanke

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