Tag Archives: currency

Lots of Negatives for US dollar

By Admin | Published: June 7, 2011

Tuesday Bullets:

· Headlines: “CHINA FX OFFICIAL WARNS OF RISKS IN “EXCESSIVE” HOLDINGS OF US DOLLAR ASSETS” and “CHINA FX OFFICIAL SAYS US DOLLAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AGAINST OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES.”

· On Greek debt, ECB’s Trichet states that while he’s against imposing losses on creditors, he indicated he’d approve of financial institutions maintaining their level of outstanding credit. “That is not a default,” he said at an event in Montreal late yesterday. “That is something the ECB would consider appropriate.”

· April German manufacturing orders better than expected at +2.8% vse +2.0%.

· April Euroland retail sales better … …READ MORE

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Money in Motion Trade:

By Admin | Published: May 19, 2011

From CNBC’s Squawk on the Street appearance yesterday, I proposed this trade:

Buy Euro/Sell Jpy
Entry 114.00
S/L 112.75
T/P 119.50
4.4:1 return
• The IMF scandal, concerns over Greece default, and easier than expected ECB comments have driven down the euro ag the US dollar and yen.
• All three have obscured the better than expected GDP and the still large interest rate differentials favoring the Euro.
• The US data continues to surprise to the downside and the Japanese data are pointing to a recession.
• The Bank of Japan meets on May 20th and the Japanese government … …READ MORE

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The illusion of an impervious Euro

By Admin | Published: March 7, 2011

Let’s take a quick spin around the global currency markets to see what the major topics.

First, the price of oil continues to soar as the events in Libya have taken 1 million barrels per day out of the global supply. Brent crude is trading above $188 and Europe is feeling the pain as petrol prices go up. Libyan produced oil went to Italy and now Italy is getting refugees instead from MENA (Middle East North Africa) countries.

Next, the European Union members have been meeting to decide the future of the EFSF (bailout fund) and the future of the … …READ MORE

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3things You Need to Know Today

By Admin | Published: January 18, 2011

1. China’s President Hu Jintao visits the United States. This is an official state visit and there will be an official state dinner as President Hu comes to Washington D.C. and then travels to Chicago. Yesterday, he answered submitted written questions from both the WSJ and WaPo. WSJ question 4: What do you think will be the U.S. dollar’s future role in the world? How do you see the issue of making the RMB an international currency? Some think that RMB appreciation may curb China’s inflation, what’s your view on that?

Here are the salient bullets on the currency:
• … …READ MORE

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Fantastic FX Four

By Admin | Published: January 10, 2011

1. The ECB meets next week. The markets continue to abuse the Euro against most major currencies as concerns over European banks remain strong. As an indication of the uncertainty, the Swiss central bank has excluded Irish government debt from a list of assets considered eligible as collateral for its repo deals. Also, the ECB has stated they are concerned over the Irish government’s ability to force losses on the collateral it accepts for loans to commercial banks. These stories along with others (Belgium) have spooked the European sovereign debt markets and have forced spreads to German bonds and CDS … …READ MORE

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5 things you need to know today:

By Admin | Published: January 3, 2011

1. There’s a way, just a ? of the will: There are a couple of early articles out broaching the topic of whether firms will begin hiring. The WSJ takes the path of how much money is on the sidelines for large corporations and how this may be used to increase employment. Bloomberg tacks with a focus on small firms improving sales, but how they are staying lean by using temporary help longer rather than adding full time employees. Without job growth, the US economy slides into perdition in the 2nd half of this year.
2. China eases restrictions for … …READ MORE

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French and German Officials: Euro Our Currency, Your Problem:

By Admin | Published: June 4, 2010

Engaging in what I perceive as their only avenue to grow, Germany’s Finance Minister Schaueble and France’s PM Sarkozy made statements intimating that the weak Euro is not an issue for the country’s in the European Monetary Union. Given the intransigence of the ECB to aid southern Europe, this is the only path available to countries in the Euro group to avoid an economic slowdown as they enact austerity measures.

The decline in the euro has been the main driver of Germany’s economic growth, Korean press has quoted Germany’s finance minister as saying according to the Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper. … …READ MORE

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China…..Ntg Yet!

By Admin | Published: April 8, 2010

Here’s the US Treasury’s terse statement on the Geithner visit to Beijing:

This evening in Beijing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, President Barack Obama’s special representative, met with his counterpart Vice Premier Wang Qishan of the State Council and special representative of Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The two sides exchanged views on U.S.-China economic relations, the global economic situation and issues relating to the upcoming economic track dialogue of the second U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, to be held in Beijing in late May.

Here are my major takeaways:

US Treasury Tim Geithner met with Vice Premier Wang Qishan and … …READ MORE

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Tax Policy versus Currency Policy

By Admin | Published: March 24, 2010

Today, the House Ways and Means Committee (Chairman Levin, D-Mich.) will hold a hearing on China’s exchange rate policy, focusing on its immediate and long-term impact on U.S. and global economic recoveries and job creation, and steps that could be taken to address the issue according to CQ. Here’s a list witnesses scheduled:

C. Fred Bergsten, director, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Niall Ferguson, professor, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.
Philip I. Levy, resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Clyde V. Prestowitz, president, Economic Strategy Institute

Also today, US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is meeting with Chinese Ambassador Zhang Yesui at Treasury, … …READ MORE

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China's Inflation and Currency Problem

By Admin | Published: December 28, 2009

December 28th, 2009
Chicago, Illinois

Andrew B. Busch
Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist
(312) 845-2879
1-800-438-0434

Next Speech

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With Chinese Premier saying no to yuan appreciation and US holiday retail sales better than expected, the greenback is marginally lower against most major currencies in thin trading. The US dollar index is down .12 at 77.60. Australia, UK, Germany, and Canada (and others) are out for Boxing Day……I’ll do the OIS tomorrow when everyone gets back.

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook
12:00 PM ChicagoFedMidwestManufacturing Index
1:00 PM Results of $44B, 2-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money … …READ MORE

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