Having spent the weekend watching the US political talks shows, there is one thing with certainty I can relay: the 9% Congressional approval rating will go lower. From these appearances by members of the Joint Select Committee, it was clearly indicated that they will not be moving forward on a deficit reduction plan and will likely announce this at the end of today. The positions were delineated along Democrat’s inability to cut entitlements to reduce spending and Republicans inability to raise taxes to increase revenues to reduce the deficit.
Any serious study of the US debt and deficit situation has … …READ MORE
Tag Archives: congress
Super Committee Kryptonite
Critical Silver Lining to US Debt Crisis
By now, most have heard of the agreement between Congress and the White House over raising the debt ceiling. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have backed the plan on the Senate floor. Senate Republicans are to meet at 10AM ET and Senate Democrats are to meet at 11AM ET to get the details of plan. Afterwards, the US Senate is scheduled to begin debate today on the plan to start an expedited legislative process.
Sunday night, Speaker of the US House John Boehner (R.-Ohio) provided the House GOP caucus a power point presentation … …READ MORE
CNBC at 11:30 AM ET on President Obama's economic program
Since I’m on CNBC at 11:30 discussing President Obama’s economic program, I thought I’d reprint my testimony in front of Congress on the topic.
Here it is:
Chairman Issa, Ranking Member Cummings, subcommittee Chairman Jordan and Ranking Member Kucinich, thank you for the opportunity to participate in today’s hearing and to share my views regarding the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and, specifically, the results two years after its enactment on the economy and the financial markets.
As you may know, I am the Bank of Montreal’s Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist. I have worked in the … …READ MORE
Gang of 6 Disappoints
I realize this may shock you, but a bipartisan effort to reach a deal to control the national debt has stalled. A group of 6 members of Congress were working on a plan to take the best parts of the Ryan and Obama deficit reduction plans and meld them into a compromised deal that everyone would hate, but all would agree to sign. This week, Tsy Sec. Geithner moved the time from mid-May to August 2nd for when the US will hit its debt ceiling.
The elongated period will allow additional time to negotiate a deal and perhaps make the … …READ MORE
My Congressional Testimony on the 2009 Stimulus Bill
On Wednesday, I was asked to provide testimony to Congress on, “The Stimulus: Two Years Later.” I joined Prof. John Taylor, Dr. Russell Roberts, Dr. J.D. Foster, Alex Brill and Chris Edwards on a panel before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. While there was general agreement that the stimulus bill was ineffective, there was one startling fact presented by AEI’s Brill that stood out: $200 billion of the original $787 billion stimulus funds has not been spent. This fact alone should be kept in mind when we hear calls from more stimulus and deficit spending.
Below is … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Also tagged American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, fiscal deficits, stimulus Leave a comment
5 things you need to know today:
1. There’s a way, just a ? of the will: There are a couple of early articles out broaching the topic of whether firms will begin hiring. The WSJ takes the path of how much money is on the sidelines for large corporations and how this may be used to increase employment. Bloomberg tacks with a focus on small firms improving sales, but how they are staying lean by using temporary help longer rather than adding full time employees. Without job growth, the US economy slides into perdition in the 2nd half of this year.
2. China eases restrictions for … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Also tagged Austan Goolsbee, China, currency, debt ceiling, obama, Republicans, small firms, US employment Leave a comment
Top 3 Trades for 2011
Warning Holiday Alert! Last BU until next Monday!
Happy Holidays….even if you are currently stuck in a European airport.
Top 3 Trades for 2011
1. Sell 5 year Treasury note before every unemployment data day. This is a play on the ending of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. The US economy has been steadily improving after the second quarter’s dip to 1.7% due to the tightening of credit conditions courtesy of the European debt crisis. For the first three quarters of the year, the US is averaging about 3% and Q4 should be similar (released Jan. 28th).
As everyone … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Also tagged Democrats, European debt crisis, Greece, Republicans, Tea Party, US Treasury notes Leave a comment
Positive US Cycle Accelerating
By now, you have seen that late last night the US House passed President Obama’s tax and spending bill. Despite the hyperbole from the left, lame duck Democrats joined Republicans to ensure the US economy avoid a disastrous hike in tax rates. Most economists are calling for the measure to add 0.5-1.0% to GDP and taking the US economy up to 3.0-4.0% growth for 2011.
In turn, this has triggered a fascinating development in the financial markets. US interest rates have soared with the yield on the US Treasury 10 year note rising over 100 basis points to 3.55%. While … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Also tagged CNBC, Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, interest rates, NFIB, President Obama Leave a comment
Goldilocks Trade: China, Canada, US
Today, China, Canada and the US all released their monthly trade data and there were some surprises. First, China’s trade surplus narrowed from $27.2 billion in October to $22.9 billion in November. However, it did beat estimates of a drop to $21.2 billion. Chinese exports rose 34.9% to a record $153.3 billion and imports rose 37.7% to $130.4 billion. The United States accounts for $16.7 billion or 73% of the trade surplus. This fact will be further fueling momentum within Congress to bring a trade currency bill up for a vote in 2011. Expect the rhetoric to soar prior to … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Also tagged Canada, China, currency trade sanctions, trade data, US Leave a comment
Another reason Why Ben was on 60:
A new Bloomberg poll shows that the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve and say that it should be either reigned in or abolished. Clearly, this is a reflection of the 9.8% unemployment rate.
The electorate has also sent a message to Congress and the Federal Reserve by electing Tea Party members who ran on the points of reducing the size and reach of government. As an example, there is already a movement in Congress to streamline the Fed’s dual mandate.
Ben Bernanke and the other members of the FOMC will need to strengthen their media message … …READ MORE
