With the exception of Japan, the markets are back to full strength today and attempting to rally the EUR (see top ten below). The greenback is down against 13 of 17 major currencies with the Brazilian Real and New Zealand dollar outperforming. The DXY index is down .15 at 81.10 with a range of 80.96 to 81.50.
Category Archives: Front Page
Hildebrand Resigns, Top Ten for EUR rally, China in a Picture
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Replay Information for 2012 Global Macro Outlook
REPLAY INFORMATION
2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
From: Thursday, January 5, 2012
If you were unable to join this morning’s call, you can access a replay using the information found below.
Dial-In Numbers
Toll-free: 800-408-3053
(blackberry-friendly: 8004083053×6366847#)
905-694-9451
(blackberry-friendly: 9056949451×6366847#)
Conference ID: 6366847
You will be prompted for your first and last name as well as your company affiliation.… …READ MORE
Also posted in Blog, Economy, International Politics, Markets, Politics, US Politics Leave a comment
2012 Outlook
2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC UPDATE
My central thesis: The world will not come to an end in 2012, but it may appear to be at several points in the first half. We expect financial market volatility to remain high, but well below the levels of 2011.
Central point to keep in mind: policy makers will act to alleviate funding pressures and reduce downside economic risks.
Also posted in Economy, Markets, Politics, US Politics Leave a comment
Romney wins, now what?
Behind the 8 Ball: The Iowa caucus voting is done and Mitt Romney won by a slim margin of 8 votes. The quick take is that Romney will continue to divide and conquer the conservative field as long as Santorum/Perry/Bachman/Gingrich stay in the race. Romney is the only candidate that has a national organization for campaigning and fundraising strong enough to dominate. 2008 Republican nominee John McCain will endorse Romney this week before New Hampshire and underscores the Republican Party is beginning to coalesce around Romney. Romney needs to provide clearer details on individual and corporate tax reform … …READ MORE
Also posted in Economy, US Politics Leave a comment
Iowa caucus
Today, Iowans will be engaged in a somewhat quaint tradition of caucusing to elect a Republican candidate. There are 99 counties and 99 caucus conventions where “a gathering of neighbors” debate the candidates and then vote to elect delegates who support their choice. To put this in perspective, there are approximately 100,000 voters involved in the process versus the 130 million who could eventually vote on Election Day in November. While I’m sure all the NYT must be chuckling at this, the fact is that Iowa matters for the election process as it is a proving ground for candidates and … …READ MORE
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European Downgrade Watch and Fallout
Today, Moody’s Investor Services provided a mixed review of the EU leaders’ summit and agreement to combat the European debt crisis. “In substance, however, the communique offers few new measures, and does not change our view that risks to the cohesion of the euro area continue to rise…As we announced in November, unless credit market conditions stabilize in the near future, our ratings of all EU sovereigns will need to be revisited. The communique does not change that view, and we continue to expect to complete such a repositioning during the first quarter of 2012.” Moody’s went on to cite … …READ MORE
BOE stays on hold, ECB cuts
Today, the Bank of England left rates and QE on hold as Governor King decides to wait before more additional easing measures are taken and says that the events in Europe are beyond his control. In October, the BOE surprised the markets with an aggressive increase in QE by 75bln GBP to 275bln GBP. These purchases will be completed in February and the current market expectations are for more QE then. This is despite the downgrade to the 2012 GDP forecasts by not only the central bank, but also by the OBR (Office of Budget Responsibility). While King is correct … …READ MORE
Europe Update….dissappointed!
Here’s the latest string of newsflow/rumors leading up to the European Union leaders summit.
- Germany appears to be downplaying expectations for the summit as one politician said he’s more pessimistic than last week on an overall summit deal and that not all EU are aware of the situation’s gravity.
- ECB said they will lend tomorrow a massive $50.7bln 84 day US dollar funds to 34 banks. November auction had only $0.395bln and underscores $/year-end demand is acute.
- Germany had better than expected October industrial production (+0.8 vse +0.3) and their 5yr note auction was oversubscribed (unlike the “failed” auction last
Rubber, Road, Europe
The European debt crisis solution week was getting off to a very good start as the ECB was toyed with a large bond buying program, Italy put forward a “Save Italy” package and Merkozy appeared to agree to a fiscal union. In the lead up to the European leaders’ summit on Friday, the news flow appears to be breaking distinctly positive (all one way) for Europe to effectively deal with the crisis.
The big news over the weekend came from an article in the London Times (not exactly known for breaking financial news) that the European Central Bank was preparing … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Tagged European debt crisis, France, Germany, Italy, Merkozy, Monti Leave a comment
Finally, Global Action!
Today, 6 central banks acted to reduce funding tensions in the global financial markets. The EUR rallied 200 points, S&P is up 35 and US 10yr yields are up 10bps at 2.07%. Here’s the Federal Reserve statement:
The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on … …READ MORE
Posted in Front Page Tagged Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, ECB, EUR, Federal Reserve Leave a comment
