On Friday’s show, I did a plasma segment on trading events that occur in the night. Here’s the segment. Here’s the graphics and trade.
DATE TIME EVENT
FEBRUARY 6 22:30 GMT Australian Central Bank Decision
FEBRUARY 7 18:50 GMT Japanese Current Account Balance
FEBRUARY 8 20:30 GMT Chinese CPI

Outcome Currency Strategy
Chinese CPI < 4.0% Buy Aud/Sell USD
Chinese CPI 4.5% Sell AUD/Buy MXN

SELL AUD/MXN @ 13.6900
STOP LOSS 13.7100
SELL AUD/MXN 13.6900
TARGET 13.6100
You’ll notice that spot was already at 13.69 on Friday and that AUD/MXN has already fallen to the take profit levels (low overnight was 13.56). The point is … ...READ MORE

According to a new WaPo-ABC News Poll, President Barack Obama leads Republican front runner Mitt Romney 52 to 43 percent among all Americans and 51-45 amongst likely voters. This is the first time President Obama has been above 50 since July and bodes well for his re-election campaign. The poll was taken February 1st-4th and this means that half those polled saw Friday’s positive unemployment data. However, Obama must improve on voters viewpoint on his handling of the economy as polling shows 48% of the general population picked Romney over Obama when they were asked whom did they trust to … ...READ MORE

Negative newsflow out over the last 24 hours means that there is no deal yet on Greece. The sticking point is not the PSI negotiations, it’s the OSI negotiations. The official sector involvement (Troika) is telling Greece to implement the labor reforms and pension cuts for an additional 1.5% of GDP. Troika (ECB, EU, IMF) want this done before they agree to provide the new 130 billion EUR loan. They want to see the cuts implemented and assurances from all political parties that these reforms will stay in place even after the Greek elections in April.

Thus, we have a … ...READ MORE

Yesterday in an underreported story, the US Treasury announced that they are changing the rules for USpension plans.  Treasury proposed two regulations to make it easier for those approaching retirement to buy an annuity through their company-funded pensions or 401(k) savings accounts according to Bloomberg.  (Annuities are insurance contracts that guarantee a lifetime stream of income in exchange for up-front payments.) 

Why is this important? 

First, there is a massive amount of money in pension plans with about $2.9 trillion in 401(k) accounts and a total $17 trillion in retirement savings (as of Sept. 30, according … ...READ MORE

In speeches I do for clients and conferences, one of my favorite charts comes from the Kauffman Foundation’s study on where jobs are created in the United States. It shows that firms 5 years and younger accounted for over 90% of new jobs created in the US from 1992-2006……

Read Full BU… ...READ MORE

Overnight, we had a slew of PMI data out with the numbers all slightly better than expected.  The euro zone Dec. PMI was 48.8 vse 48.7 and Germany’s PMI was 51.0 vse 50.9.  The semi-official Dec. Chinese CLFP PMI was 50.5 vse 50.3.  As with many of the Chinese numbers, the official data collection could be improved and expanded.  China Business News Reports that the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said they plan to expand the sample in compiling its Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing sectors to 3,000 enterprises from the current 820, according … ...READ MORE

Why did the EUR/USD rally in January?

• Short covering: Last week, the market was extremely short EUR/USD and speculators added more to their net short position to a new high of 169,740 contracts according to CFTC commitment of traders report.
• ECB funding: bond yields for Italy and Spain fell dramatically and sovereign refundings have gone smoothly.
• FOMC 2014 and QE3 talk.

Why is the EUR/USD stalling now?

• Greek debt talks not done with either PSI or Troika: These could drag on until March 20th when the 14.4 billion euro payment is due.
• Portugal is now Greece. The 10yr Portuguese debt
… ...READ MORE

China aggressively added funds into their financial system and their money-market rate had its biggest monthly drop since July.  The PBOC injected 477 billion Yuan ($75.6 billion) and is the most cash to the financial system in almost four years.  This is another example of policy makers stepping in to eliminate funding risks and downside to the equity markets.  (February’s ECB LTROs will also be supportive as well.)  The Chinese injection makes up for the lack of a reserve rate cut.  It’s very positive for the AUD and NZD.… ...READ MORE

Fresh from being chased out of an event by protestors, Australian PM Julia Gillard is expressing her belief that a strong Australian dollar is a good thing.  The high Aussie is a reflection of the strength of the
Australian economy and it is the world saying that the Australian economy is strong, says Prime Minister Julia Gillard according to MNI.  “The government is aware of the pressure it is putting on sectors like manufacturing, tourism and international education, and is working with them….It is important that the mining boom doesn’t hollow out other sectors of the economy, Gillard says.” 

Anytime … ...READ MORE

In my 2012 outlook, I stated that the US Republican primary will be won by Mitt Romney with the potential for the outcome to be decided at the convention due to large Republican voter lack of conviction.  Yesterday, WaPo had this nugget:

“Despite his troubles in Florida, Gingrich says the GOP presidential contest will continue for months and that Romney may not get enough delegates to win outright at the convention….“When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Gingrich said, according to the Wall Street Journal. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to … ...READ MORE