According to a new WaPo-ABC News Poll, President Barack Obama leads Republican front runner Mitt Romney 52 to 43 percent among all Americans and 51-45 amongst likely voters. This is the first time President Obama has been above 50 since July and bodes well for his re-election campaign. The poll was taken February 1st-4th and this means that half those polled saw Friday’s positive unemployment data. However, Obama must improve on voters viewpoint on his handling of the economy as polling shows 48% of the general population picked Romney over Obama when they were asked whom did they trust to … ...READ MORE

In my 2012 outlook, I stated that the US Republican primary will be won by Mitt Romney with the potential for the outcome to be decided at the convention due to large Republican voter lack of conviction.  Yesterday, WaPo had this nugget:

“Despite his troubles in Florida, Gingrich says the GOP presidential contest will continue for months and that Romney may not get enough delegates to win outright at the convention….“When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Gingrich said, according to the Wall Street Journal. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to … ...READ MORE

 In fairness to the President Obama, SOTUs are typically speeches of broad political themes with a spate of nationalism liberally sprinkled throughout the text.  Yet, last night seemed particularly disappointing given the United States’ serious problems over the debt that has been created since Mr. Obama came into office ($10.6 trillion to $15.2 trillion) and the budget deficits that have been the largest in the country’s history (FY2009 $1.4 trillion, FY2010 $1.3 trillion and FY2011 $1.3 trillion). 

At this point, the United States remains firmly on the Japanese path to fiscal hell with the pathway paved by both parties.  However, … ...READ MORE

 The United States capitalist economy has historically been based on the concept of the opportunity to succeed.  The ideal of fairness came from equal opportunity to fail or succeed.  This has translated into creating a system that provides maximum benefit/maximum loss to those that take risk.  In turn, this has lead the nation to become the largest and most successful economic engine in the history of the world.  The United States remains one of the best countries in the world to establish a business due to the ease at which one can create a legal entity known as a corporation. … ...READ MORE

3 Primaries, 3 different winners, 3 things we’ve learned.

1.  Super Pac money means that initial losers can stay in the race and live to win another day.
2. There remains enormous Republican voter uncertainty that appears to resolve itself in the voting booth.
3. The likelihood of this primary to be decided at the convention continues to grow as there is no clear winner at this point.
… ...READ MORE

New Hampshire voted and Republican candidate Mitt Romney won his second primary in a row by a commanding lead of 13-15 points over second place finisher Ron Paul.  Iowa runner up, Rick Santorum finished a distant 5^th place.  Paul, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry have all vowed to stay in the race and go to South Carolina for the next primary. 

This is good news for Romney on two fronts.  One, he clearly destroyed the rest of the field in a state that has a primary more akin to the general election compared to Iowa.  Two, the conservative Republicans are … ...READ MORE

REPLAY INFORMATION
2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

From:  Thursday, January 5, 2012

If you were unable to join this morning’s call, you can access a replay using the information found below.

Dial-In Numbers             
Toll-free:                     800-408-3053 
                                 (blackberry-friendly:  8004083053×6366847#)
                                 905-694-9451 
                                 (blackberry-friendly:  9056949451×6366847#)

Conference ID:           6366847

You will be prompted for your first and last name as well as your company affiliation.… ...READ MORE

2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC UPDATE
My central thesis: The world will not come to an end in 2012, but it may appear to be at several points in the first half. We expect financial market volatility to remain high, but well below the levels of 2011.

Central point to keep in mind: policy makers will act to alleviate funding pressures and reduce downside economic risks.

Read More….

 … ...READ MORE

Behind the 8 Ball:   The Iowa caucus voting is done and Mitt Romney won by a slim margin of 8 votes.  The quick take is that Romney will continue to divide and conquer the conservative field as long as Santorum/Perry/Bachman/Gingrich stay in the race.  Romney is the only candidate that has a national organization for campaigning and fundraising strong enough to dominate.  2008 Republican nominee John McCain will endorse Romney this week before New Hampshire and underscores the Republican Party is beginning to coalesce around Romney.  Romney needs to provide clearer details on individual and corporate tax reform … ...READ MORE

Today, Iowans will be engaged in a somewhat quaint tradition of caucusing to elect a Republican candidate.  There are 99 counties and 99 caucus conventions where “a gathering of neighbors” debate the candidates and then vote to elect delegates who support their choice.  To put this in perspective, there are approximately 100,000 voters involved in the process versus the 130 million who could eventually vote on Election Day in November.  While I’m sure all the NYT must be chuckling at this, the fact is that Iowa matters for the election process as it is a proving ground for candidates and … ...READ MORE