Overnight, China announced a massive increase in new Yuan loans that helped generate a big up move in Risk and the Australian dollar (the huge 44k increase in Aussie jobs was also a factor for the AUD). New Yuan loans increased 1,101.0B versus expected 797.5B. While Chinese bank loans typically increase in Q1, this appears to be the result of a concerted effort amongst the major banks to increase liquidity to the system to aid economic growth. Loans for January and February had surprisingly fallen to the lowest level since 2008 for similar periods.
Category Archives: Politics
China Wikileak Indicators
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Healthcare is the driver of US spending problems
From the Heritage Foundation, here is a graph that shows how Medicare and Medicaid have massively expanded over the last 11 years with Medicare expanding 86% over that time frame…..
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2012 election=how many looking for work
With the soft jobs data, both political camps were in full spin mode over the weekend on what it meant and what they could do to assist the economy going forward. To me, the untold story remains the low level of the participation rate in the labor force. As jobs become more difficult to get for longer periods of time, this rate declines as people stop looking for work. It provides a false sense of improvement as it takes less job creation to lower the overall unemployment rate as the participation rate declines. In June of 2008, the rate was … …READ MORE
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Mark your calendars: Republican Primary over on April 24th.
Last night, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney went 3 for 3 as he swept Wisconsin, District of Columbia and Maryland. As of today, Romney has 655 delegates to Santorum’s 278 with the magic 1,144 threshold still needed to win outright before the convention in August. On April 24th, there will be primaries in Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York. Romney is expected to win every one except Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. If Santorum loses his home state, then he has no solid ground to stand on to stay in the race.
Sensing the end is near; Romney … …READ MORE
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Disconcerting Milestone: US student loans above $1trln.
From the CPFB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) blog by Rohit Chopra, “Our initial findings on the size of the private student loan market are sobering. When we add in the outstanding debt in the federal student loan program, it appears that outstanding student loan debt hit the trillion dollar mark several months ago – much larger than estimates from other recent reports. It seems that this market is too big to fail….Unlike other consumer credit products, student debt keeps growing at a steady clip. Students borrowed $117 billion in just federal student loans last year. And students continue to borrow … …READ MORE
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US Republican Primary Update: Romney Crushes
Yesterday, Illinois voters went to the polls and Mitt Romney almost matched his polling totals I wrote about on Monday. Romney won with 46.7% to Santorum’s 35%. Now, Romney has 563 delegates about half way to 1,144 needed to win and avoid a convention fight. Santorum has only 263 delegates and needs to take 70% of the remaining primary delegates to win the nomination…..almost an impossible task. Party leaders will begin to put extraordinary pressure on Santorum to quit the race to allow Romney a clear, unambiguous path to the nomination.
If the Republicans goal is to win the White … …READ MORE
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Volcker Delayed=Upside for Banks
The WSJ carries a story today about how banks are fighting the implementation of the Volcker Rule under Dodd-Frank and may now be getting help. “Senators from both parties are working to give regulators more time to write the rule, potentially easing banks’ concerns that their activities will run afoul of the law as a July deadline passes….The Volcker rule, which restricts banks’ ability to trade with their own money, is set to take effect July 21, whether or not regulators have a final rule in place, according to the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke … …READ MORE
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US Republican Primary Update
Tuesday, people from the great state of Illinois (now 2 former governors in jail) go to the polls and will likely send Mitt Romney a large chunk of delegates. Here is the latest polling data: Per Public Policy Polling: “Final Illinois numbers: Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 10 … This is how thorough Romney’s advantage in IL is- leads Santorum 38-36 even among voters who identify as living in rural areas.” (Politico) From here, Romney is likely to begin the process of crushing his opponents on his way to getting close to 1,144 delegates. However, the process is … …READ MORE
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China Housing Weak
This weekend, China released their 70 city housing statistics and they were the weakest since they started the series in 2011. New home prices fell in 27 out of 70 cities in China from a year earlier with 6 cities unchanged. As most know, Chinese property prices have increase significantly over the last 10 years and the government in 2011 attempted to slow down the rise by regulation, interest rate increases and reserve requirement increases. China recently cut the reserve requirement and this sparked a belief that more easing would come to aid housing. However, Premier Wen Jiabao told lawmakers … …READ MORE
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Super Tuesday…..for Obama:
The big primary day has not generated any startling news and certainly didn’t deliver the knock-out punch for Romney that he hoped. What are the takeaways?
1. The Republican primary looks like to continue all the way to the August convention.
2. Due to super PACs, no candidate will drop out.
3. Romney will be forced to raise more money and spend it on the primary instead of the general election.
4. Republicans will continue with their internecine food fight over social issues instead of focusing on President Obama’s economic and fiscal track record.
5. The window for Republicans to … …READ MORE
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