Negative newsflow out over the last 24 hours means that there is no deal yet on Greece. The sticking point is not the PSI negotiations, it’s the OSI negotiations. The official sector involvement (Troika) is telling Greece to implement the labor reforms and pension cuts for an additional 1.5% of GDP. Troika (ECB, EU, IMF) want this done before they agree to provide the new 130 billion EUR loan. They want to see the cuts implemented and assurances from all political parties that these reforms will stay in place even after the Greek elections in April.

Thus, we have a … ...READ MORE

The discussions around Greece and their debt are reaching an important stage as the private sector negotiations are coming to a conclusion.  On January 27^th, the two sides they had reached understandings on legal and technical issues.  Sadly, the sticking point remains what the yield for the coupons on the new swapped bonds will be as the lower the rate, the bigger the relief to Greece.  Given the contraction in the Greek economy, the lack of tax revenue and the inability to implement structural reforms, estimates for their bailout loan have swollen to $145 billion euros to meet … ...READ MORE

Let’s face it; the only surprise left to the European debt crisis would be if it actually got resolved. There have been so many predicting that Europe would be unable to fix its problems that listening to Steven Tyler sing the National Anthem would be a welcome alternative.  Yet, European leaders continue to act like Churchillian American leaders:  they do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives. 

As I wrote yesterday, the ECB is finally engaging in Fed-like alphabet soup lending facilities and cutting interest rates.  Italy, Spain, Ireland have engaged in belated, yet meaningful austerity measures.  (Yes, Greece … ...READ MORE

REPLAY INFORMATION
2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

From:  Thursday, January 5, 2012

If you were unable to join this morning’s call, you can access a replay using the information found below.

Dial-In Numbers             
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Conference ID:           6366847

You will be prompted for your first and last name as well as your company affiliation.… ...READ MORE