According to a new WaPo-ABC News Poll, President Barack Obama leads Republican front runner Mitt Romney 52 to 43 percent among all Americans and 51-45 amongst likely voters. This is the first time President Obama has been above 50 since July and bodes well for his re-election campaign. The poll was taken February 1st-4th and this means that half those polled saw Friday’s positive unemployment data. However, Obama must improve on voters viewpoint on his handling of the economy as polling shows 48% of the general population picked Romney over Obama when they were asked whom did they trust to … ...READ MORE

Negative newsflow out over the last 24 hours means that there is no deal yet on Greece. The sticking point is not the PSI negotiations, it’s the OSI negotiations. The official sector involvement (Troika) is telling Greece to implement the labor reforms and pension cuts for an additional 1.5% of GDP. Troika (ECB, EU, IMF) want this done before they agree to provide the new 130 billion EUR loan. They want to see the cuts implemented and assurances from all political parties that these reforms will stay in place even after the Greek elections in April.

Thus, we have a … ...READ MORE

In my 2012 outlook, I stated that the US Republican primary will be won by Mitt Romney with the potential for the outcome to be decided at the convention due to large Republican voter lack of conviction.  Yesterday, WaPo had this nugget:

“Despite his troubles in Florida, Gingrich says the GOP presidential contest will continue for months and that Romney may not get enough delegates to win outright at the convention….“When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Gingrich said, according to the Wall Street Journal. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to … ...READ MORE

The discussions around Greece and their debt are reaching an important stage as the private sector negotiations are coming to a conclusion.  On January 27^th, the two sides they had reached understandings on legal and technical issues.  Sadly, the sticking point remains what the yield for the coupons on the new swapped bonds will be as the lower the rate, the bigger the relief to Greece.  Given the contraction in the Greek economy, the lack of tax revenue and the inability to implement structural reforms, estimates for their bailout loan have swollen to $145 billion euros to meet … ...READ MORE

 In fairness to the President Obama, SOTUs are typically speeches of broad political themes with a spate of nationalism liberally sprinkled throughout the text.  Yet, last night seemed particularly disappointing given the United States’ serious problems over the debt that has been created since Mr. Obama came into office ($10.6 trillion to $15.2 trillion) and the budget deficits that have been the largest in the country’s history (FY2009 $1.4 trillion, FY2010 $1.3 trillion and FY2011 $1.3 trillion). 

At this point, the United States remains firmly on the Japanese path to fiscal hell with the pathway paved by both parties.  However, … ...READ MORE

 The United States capitalist economy has historically been based on the concept of the opportunity to succeed.  The ideal of fairness came from equal opportunity to fail or succeed.  This has translated into creating a system that provides maximum benefit/maximum loss to those that take risk.  In turn, this has lead the nation to become the largest and most successful economic engine in the history of the world.  The United States remains one of the best countries in the world to establish a business due to the ease at which one can create a legal entity known as a corporation. … ...READ MORE

Let’s face it; the only surprise left to the European debt crisis would be if it actually got resolved. There have been so many predicting that Europe would be unable to fix its problems that listening to Steven Tyler sing the National Anthem would be a welcome alternative.  Yet, European leaders continue to act like Churchillian American leaders:  they do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives. 

As I wrote yesterday, the ECB is finally engaging in Fed-like alphabet soup lending facilities and cutting interest rates.  Italy, Spain, Ireland have engaged in belated, yet meaningful austerity measures.  (Yes, Greece … ...READ MORE

3 Primaries, 3 different winners, 3 things we’ve learned.

1.  Super Pac money means that initial losers can stay in the race and live to win another day.
2. There remains enormous Republican voter uncertainty that appears to resolve itself in the voting booth.
3. The likelihood of this primary to be decided at the convention continues to grow as there is no clear winner at this point.
… ...READ MORE

New Hampshire voted and Republican candidate Mitt Romney won his second primary in a row by a commanding lead of 13-15 points over second place finisher Ron Paul.  Iowa runner up, Rick Santorum finished a distant 5^th place.  Paul, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry have all vowed to stay in the race and go to South Carolina for the next primary. 

This is good news for Romney on two fronts.  One, he clearly destroyed the rest of the field in a state that has a primary more akin to the general election compared to Iowa.  Two, the conservative Republicans are … ...READ MORE

REPLAY INFORMATION
2012 GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

From:  Thursday, January 5, 2012

If you were unable to join this morning’s call, you can access a replay using the information found below.

Dial-In Numbers             
Toll-free:                     800-408-3053 
                                 (blackberry-friendly:  8004083053×6366847#)
                                 905-694-9451 
                                 (blackberry-friendly:  9056949451×6366847#)

Conference ID:           6366847

You will be prompted for your first and last name as well as your company affiliation.… ...READ MORE