1. ECB – President Draghi announced the ECB will exclude four Greek banks from regular liquidity operations, a move to protect the Central Bank against losses from a possible Greek eurozone exit. The Euro Stoxx 50 is -1.19%, led by financials, which are -2.73% on the session. The euro’s one-day spot return against the USD is -0.08%
2. Spain – Bankia’s depositors have removed a reported EUR 1 bln since last week’s effective nationalization. The stock has lost nearly 50% since 30 April. The IBEX is -1.36% on the session, led by financials, -2.69%. Look for a Moody’s downgrade of … …READ MORE

Today’s good US economic data helped stabilize the US equity markets today despite the negative news out of Europe and Greece. The US economy continues to show why global investors prefer (See Milken Conference commentary) to put money into equities here and reduce exposure to Europe. This is also why there is limited downside to how much Europe impacts what happens in the United States. The key question for the markets is whether there will be a global financial contagion created by the entire Euro zone breaking up versus a just reduced growth environment for Europe due to austerity.

From … …READ MORE

The currency trades I put forward today are outlines and not intended to be precise. Please remember, you must adjust to new information and price movements that occur. These trades are not meant to be set in stone and followed dogmatically. The best traders are those that stay disciplined with their stops while adjusting their entry points and profits to reflect new information. … …READ MORE

Playbook for how to trade Friday’s Canadian unemployment numbers.

April Canadian unemployment is out on Friday at 8:30 AM ET

Market expectations are for 7.3% up from 7.2% in March.

The net change in employment is expected to be +10k, down from 82.3k in March.

The Canadian dollar has been beat up this week with oil dropping to multi-week lows and has lost 2% since April 30th.

Playbook:
1. If Canadian UE<7.2% and oil > $98.00, then sell USD/Buy CAD.
2. If Canadian UE7.3% and oil < 96.00, then buy USD/Sell CAD.

I think #1 is best for the biggest move and allows us to trade the 0.9800-1.0050 … …READ MORE

Today at 10:25 AM ET, I’ll be appearing on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street discussing the political uncertainty in Europe and how to trade it. Below is the outline for the trade and appearance.
• Today, the EUR/USD put in new lows as concerns over European political instability weigh on the currency: Greek exit and Spanish banks.
• There is no path forward for growth in Europe as the ECB won’t ease and the new governments are unable to provide new fiscal stimulus.
• This translates into further economic weakness, falling tax receipts and reduced ability to service debt.

Trade: … …READ MORE

Topics for Money in Motion:
Here are the potential topics for Friday’s show.

Send me a note if there’s another area you want to see explored.

1. Elections in France and Greece.
2. The US Unemployment Rate.
3. Will the Fed go for QE3 is #2 is weak?
4. Bank of England meeting.
5. Ron Paul and his FT article “Our Central Bankers are intellectually bankrupt”

Tweet back and let me know what you think…..… …READ MORE

Here’s the currency trade for today’s appearance at 12:50 ET on CNBC’s Halftime Report.

US Employment Currency Playbook
1. If NFP<125k, then sell USD/buy MXN
2. If NFP175k, then sell AUD/buy USD

If the NFP is between 125K and175K, do nothing as the market will be going back and forth trying to figure out what to do.

I think the biggest payoff will be from #1, especially after the market thinks (incorrectly) that today’s jobless claims improvement have anything to do with tomorrow’s numbers.

A weak US NPF number will drive QE3 news flow on the FOMC and should weaken the US dollar … …READ MORE

Tuesday, I was on a panel with five very sharp minds discussing the risks from the extraordinary global central bank quantitative easing. We had two authors present and I recommend reading their books: Barry Eichengreen’s “Exorbitant Privilege” and James Rickards’ “Currency Wars.”

If you want to watch the panel, click here.

Here are my points that started the discussion:

1. My biggest concern is not the amount or level of the quantitative easing, but how and when the central banks begin to exit from the programs. The Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and … …READ MORE