#BuschUpdate How to improve your investing

#BuschUpdate How to improve your investing

The WSJ carried a great article today about how to improve your investing. I think often I spend too much time focused on the “flavor-of-the-week” stock, currency, bond for investing. While this isn’t a bad strategy for trading, it’s a very poor one for investing. The two are very different activities.

Trading is the art of moving money in and out of instruments with leverage to take advantage of relatively small movements in the markets. The key for trading isn’t great ideas, but rather great discipline to enter and exit according to a pre-determined plan.

Investing is a completely different animal as the time frame is longer and the expected returns larger. To be an investor, one needs to do longer term research such as understanding a country’s tax policy towards exports (for currencies) or reading annual reports/10Qs/transcripts of conference calls for stocks. I know I need to do more of this prior to recommending a stock or a currency trade. Unlike acting, more is better when it comes to investing.

Take a read of the article and see if you can improve your own investing.

EPISODE DIRECTORY

Blog Archive

7/20/2015: Trump: himself, rope, hang

Say what you want about the Donald, but he does have the ability to hit raw nerves in the GOP base from time to time.  While ridiculously self-serving and damaging, his comments hit the base’s spine after the SF sanctuary Lopez case. “I love the Mexican people. I do business with the Mexican people, but you...

7/20/2015: Warning: Raw Currency Research!

In preparation for a speech I’m giving at the BMO Fixed Income conference this week, I’ve assembled all the URLs from my recent searches along with some descriptions.  Outside the US, the over-arching global theme remains QE with a weak currency. Yellen’s testimony:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20150715a.htm In its most recent statement, the FOMC again noted that it judged...

7/20/2015: 3 Currency Graphs To Munch On

EURUSD:  2yr daily, 200DMA, and comments     USDJPY:  5yr weekly, uptrend channel, comments     USDX:  3yr weekly, blue line 200DMA, comments  

7/20/2015: Welcome Back From Vaca!

For those returning from vacation, welcome back! I hope the break was nice and you got a chance to do a brain download and clean-up.  Let me know the books you are consuming.  I went back to 2002 to read “I Am Messenger.”  Great fun! Major themes for the markets: Greece and EU:  we’ve got...

7/10/2015: Andy’s HC jam research on SCOTUS ruling and implications for business

Hey, I’m jamming away on an article on the US Supreme Court ruling on ACA and it’s impact on business.  The article will be out next week, but I thought I’d send along the urls for all the research I did.  This things uber complicated, but there are some basic points to understand and reforms...

7/09/2015: Andy’s back and I’ve got bug bites to prove it from Greece, China, and Iran!

Hey, I realize it’s been a while, but everyone needs a break! I went up to South Haven Michigan for the 4th and it was awesome because we didn’t get the rotten, rainy weather most of the Midwest experienced. Of course, there was an ill-fated kayak trip down the Black River that turned into a...

6/22/2015: The Real Greek Dilemma: Is it better for EURUSD for Greece to stay or go?

As everyone in the media and markets remains fixated on the EU Summit and Greece, let’s take a moment to think about the broader implications on the value of the currency. Is it better for the EU to continue to provide funding to a member state that has broken the rules to not only get...

6/22/2015: Il Budget Update: how the lowest rated state is doing

For those of you watching and wondering how lowest rated state in the republic is doing, here’s my latest update on the budget negotiations and reform efforts in Illinois. IL Gov. Bruce Rauner Illinois Budget Battle Begins: what it means for business As summer begins, the debate over the future of the state of Illinois...

6/15/2015: DC Insanity: Voting ag Trade Adj, then Voting for TPA

What a fun DC Friday that was?  How confusing was it that the House voted down a bill on Trade Adjustment for workers as a way to kill TPA, but then voted to pass TPA?  Say what?  Yep, that’s how our government works. What’s fascinating to me is how many Democrats voted against Trade Adjustment...

6/15/2015: 3 Charts for Monday: 10yr, rates past and present, Fed behind wage curve

  3 Charts for Monday US 10yr note:  sideways/slight uptrend in price Click to enlarge The above chart is a 3yr price graph of the US 10 yr note futures.  Two weeks ago, I drew a trend channel that has a slight uptrend.  At that time, I made the point that while the price was...

6/01/2015: BU 3 Charts for Monday w/central bank week on the sked

Besides US NFP data, this is “Central Bank Week” as we get 6 meeting and providing their thoughts on monetary policy for their country. In order: Tuesday:  RBA mkt exp.  unchanged at 2%, RBI mkt exp. 25bp cut in the repo rate to 7.25% Wednesday:  ECB mkt exp. no change, Brazil mkt exp. a 50bp...

5/26/2015: China’s currency manipulation and TPA

For all those in Congress attempting to get a currency manipulation bill together to fight against the Chinese, I suggest you take a close look at the graph above.  It is a percentage change chart of the US dollar against the Chinese Yuan in red and the Japanese Yen in green over the last year....

5/26/2015: EURUSD Revisit: Where do we go from here?

Last week on Monday, I made this call on the EURUSD: The above graph is a 3 year chart of EURUSD. I’ve got 2 lines of text. One, Draghi warns on strong EUR at 1.37. Two, FOMC notes strong $ at 1.07. Clearly, we’re still in a downtrend. Clearly, we’ve bounced from the lows at...

5/18/2015: BuschUpdate: EM rabbit hole research

Like most analysts, I love diving into research and letting it take me down rabbit holes.  Below is an early week list of the URLs I’ve hit over the weekend and today. I think my favorite “find” so far has been this page: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org It’s a shame you can’t sign up for a newsletter, but...

5/18/2015: BuschUpdate: 3 graphs to start the week

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend and is ready to get back to thinking about the markets!     For the rest of us, I’ve got 3 graphs to get you thinking about what’s happening and what we can anticipate this week.   Where is the US GDP for Q2?   Click to enlarge After...

5/04/2015: 3 thoughts: China, bond yields, and 2016 religious opportunity

China’s currency. The Chinese have recently been on their best behavior when it comes to their currency. Since 2005 when the IMF deemed the currency undervalued, the CNY has appreciated from 8.7 to the US dollar to a recent low of 6.05 or about 30%. The WSJ graphic shows the appreciation of the currency and...

5/04/2015: Andy’s overview on central banks, currencies, and stock valuations

Below is a brief summary of key global central banks and where they stand with monetary policy. i. Fed: 1. Believes economy has recovered enough to end QE 2. Goal is to normalize interest rates. 3. Timing is in question: i. ECB 1. Believes economy needs QE due to deflation, high UE, low GDP. 2....

4/27/2015: Why Chinese stocks are like eating meat off a grill

Just a couple of thoughts for the day: Chinese stocks. Last night, the SHCOMP staged a 3% rally again. This index (and others in China) have exploded over the last year as the Chinese government has taken steps to encourage it from regulatory changes (HK link) to monetary policy changes (easing) to current account changes...

4/27/2015: BU The Turmoil in Turkish Lira

Given the recent focus on the Armenian-Turkish uproar over genocide, I think it’s a great time focus on the upheaval in the Turkish lira. The graph above shows a 2yr chart of the USD/TRY with 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA. Ladies and Gentleman, this is what you call a trend! Parabolic, geometric, out-of-control, whatever you want,...

4/13/2015: Congress is back; do you know where your wallet is?

  After a two-week break that has seen all sorts of presidential hopeful announcements, Congress is back to deal with several thorny issues that need to be resolved. Here’s a list: Highway funding bill. This is due by the end of May and not a lot has happened recently on this front. Iranian sanctions bill....

4/10/2015: Fed is done being patient: what this means for business

My latest article for MB Financial’s website:  https://www.mbfinancial.com/insights/manage/articles/2015/20150407-federal-reserve-monetary-policy/index.aspx At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve changed their monetary policy statement and removed a key word from the text. Leading up to the meeting, there was tremendous interest over the removal of this two-syllable word and what it meant for the path of future interest rates....

4/10/2015: Fed is done being patient: what this means for business

My latest article appearing on MB Financial https://www.mbfinancial.com/insights/manage/articles/2015/20150407-federal-reserve-monetary-policy/index.aspx   At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve changed their monetary policy statement and removed a key word from the text. Leading up to the meeting, there was tremendous interest over the removal of this two-syllable word and what it meant for the path of future interest...

4/10/2015: Guest Post: Asia’s Internet Revolution

THE BIG STORY: Asia’s Internet revolution — Part 2 FACEBOOK A MAJOR DRIVER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IN CAMBODIA  “Military police can no longer shoot at civilians, as it is instantly on and goes viral,” wrote Cambodian Opposition Member of Parliament Mu Sochua in anexclusive Op-Ed for Borderless News. Just like in the rest of Asia,...

4/10/2015: Transcript CapAlpha’s Jim Lucier on energy, ethanol, and Iowa!

Last week, I had a great conversation with Capital Alpha’s Jim Lucier on energy, ethanol, and Iowa.  I think it’s a must read for anyone who wants to understand how the ethanol mandate for gasoline was created and why it’s not likely to go away any time soon! Andy: Welcome to Engage with Andy Busch....

4/05/2015: Iran: my view and market implications

Two big pieces of news last week that continue to resonate into this week.  First, the P5+1 agreement with Iran on their nuclear industry.  Second, the softer than expected US employment data. At 9AM ET, I’ll be on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo discussing the Iranian nuclear agreement and what it means for the markets....

4/05/2015: What to listen for during Fed Speecharama this week

Dudley 4/6 Kocherlakota 4/7 Powell/Dudley & FOMC minutes 4/8 Lacker/Kocherlakota 4/10 After underwhelming US employment data, we’re going to the full Fed gabfest this week with lots of talk and minutes from the last meeting.  To me, the interesting components of the contradictory data were the negative revision, but the positive wage growth. The above...

3/30/2015: Why markets are stalling

From the WSJ Analysts estimate companies in the S&P 500 will earn 3.3% less in the first quarter than they did a year earlier, according to FactSet. That is far worse than the 5.8% growth they had projected at the start of the year. Indeed, it represents the sharpest marking down of earnings estimates over...

3/30/2015: #Bernanke to savers: drop dead and buy stocks!

  As we head into the week of Easter, lots of focus on central banks and the buck: Maundy Thursday a big day for currency traders ? ICYMI:  Yellen’s SF speech     Bernanke to savers:  drop dead and buy stocks!   China:   Bloomberg  China will lower down payment requirements on second homes to 40% and will...

3/09/2015: Quick view on NFP and what I’m watching this week

So Janet, how’s that 2/24 wait-and-see-on-wages plan working out? How’s 25bps on the 10yr in one week? How’s 30pts down in the S&P 500 on Friday? With UE at 5.5% and in the 5.2-5.5% range the Fed told us was their target, the markets are gearing up for removal of “patient” from the Fed’s 3/18...

3/08/2015: What I’m reading on IL & Chicago: fiscal time bomb ticking louder

Here’s a list of articles I’m scoping out for my research on the worst run state in the union: Report on IL state budget crisis: http://www.statebudgetcrisis.org/wpcms/wp-content/images/Illinois-Report-Revised.pdf Rauner going after patronage appointees http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/420825/rauner-moves-identify-state-patronage-hires-given-union-protection Rauner proposes hard freeze on pensions, good review of it and other states http://www.civicfed.org/iifs/blog/illinois-governor-proposes-‘hard-freeze’-pension-benefits Rauner withholds union fees/use of executive order http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/chi-unions-sue-rauner-over-fair-share-fees-20150305-story.html Interest groups...

3/01/2015: What I’m watching this week: DC & Markets

Here’s what I’m watching this week: DC: DHS funding fight:  it’s the gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats.  Did Boehner promise Pelosi a clean bill this week? Semi-annual report on the CFPB at HFS:  this govt. agency continues to hurt housing market with QRM and other regulations. SCOTUS:  oral arguments on King v....

2/23/2015: BU: Greece, DHS, TPA, Janet&Mario

Friday brought a deal between Greece and the Troika for a 4-month extension (kick-the-can) for their massive debt.  Greece is required to submit their austerity plan to the 3 as they attempt to continue to reform their economy away from it’s dominance by the state, protectionism, and cronyism.  (Hey, isn’t this the same thing that...

View More
BACK
WordPress Image Lightbox Plugin