#BuschUpdate How to improve your investing

#BuschUpdate How to improve your investing

The WSJ carried a great article today about how to improve your investing. I think often I spend too much time focused on the “flavor-of-the-week” stock, currency, bond for investing. While this isn’t a bad strategy for trading, it’s a very poor one for investing. The two are very different activities.

Trading is the art of moving money in and out of instruments with leverage to take advantage of relatively small movements in the markets. The key for trading isn’t great ideas, but rather great discipline to enter and exit according to a pre-determined plan.

Investing is a completely different animal as the time frame is longer and the expected returns larger. To be an investor, one needs to do longer term research such as understanding a country’s tax policy towards exports (for currencies) or reading annual reports/10Qs/transcripts of conference calls for stocks. I know I need to do more of this prior to recommending a stock or a currency trade. Unlike acting, more is better when it comes to investing.

Take a read of the article and see if you can improve your own investing.

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Blog Archive

5/26/2015: China’s currency manipulation and TPA

For all those in Congress attempting to get a currency manipulation bill together to fight against the Chinese, I suggest you take a close look at the graph above.  It is a percentage change chart of the US dollar against the Chinese Yuan in red and the Japanese Yen in green over the last year....

5/26/2015: EURUSD Revisit: Where do we go from here?

Last week on Monday, I made this call on the EURUSD: The above graph is a 3 year chart of EURUSD. I’ve got 2 lines of text. One, Draghi warns on strong EUR at 1.37. Two, FOMC notes strong $ at 1.07. Clearly, we’re still in a downtrend. Clearly, we’ve bounced from the lows at...

5/18/2015: BuschUpdate: EM rabbit hole research

Like most analysts, I love diving into research and letting it take me down rabbit holes.  Below is an early week list of the URLs I’ve hit over the weekend and today. I think my favorite “find” so far has been this page: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org It’s a shame you can’t sign up for a newsletter, but...

5/18/2015: BuschUpdate: 3 graphs to start the week

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend and is ready to get back to thinking about the markets!     For the rest of us, I’ve got 3 graphs to get you thinking about what’s happening and what we can anticipate this week.   Where is the US GDP for Q2?   Click to enlarge After...

5/04/2015: 3 thoughts: China, bond yields, and 2016 religious opportunity

China’s currency. The Chinese have recently been on their best behavior when it comes to their currency. Since 2005 when the IMF deemed the currency undervalued, the CNY has appreciated from 8.7 to the US dollar to a recent low of 6.05 or about 30%. The WSJ graphic shows the appreciation of the currency and...

5/04/2015: Andy’s overview on central banks, currencies, and stock valuations

Below is a brief summary of key global central banks and where they stand with monetary policy. i. Fed: 1. Believes economy has recovered enough to end QE 2. Goal is to normalize interest rates. 3. Timing is in question: i. ECB 1. Believes economy needs QE due to deflation, high UE, low GDP. 2....

4/27/2015: Why Chinese stocks are like eating meat off a grill

Just a couple of thoughts for the day: Chinese stocks. Last night, the SHCOMP staged a 3% rally again. This index (and others in China) have exploded over the last year as the Chinese government has taken steps to encourage it from regulatory changes (HK link) to monetary policy changes (easing) to current account changes...

4/27/2015: BU The Turmoil in Turkish Lira

Given the recent focus on the Armenian-Turkish uproar over genocide, I think it’s a great time focus on the upheaval in the Turkish lira. The graph above shows a 2yr chart of the USD/TRY with 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA. Ladies and Gentleman, this is what you call a trend! Parabolic, geometric, out-of-control, whatever you want,...

4/13/2015: Congress is back; do you know where your wallet is?

  After a two-week break that has seen all sorts of presidential hopeful announcements, Congress is back to deal with several thorny issues that need to be resolved. Here’s a list: Highway funding bill. This is due by the end of May and not a lot has happened recently on this front. Iranian sanctions bill....

4/10/2015: Fed is done being patient: what this means for business

My latest article for MB Financial’s website:  https://www.mbfinancial.com/insights/manage/articles/2015/20150407-federal-reserve-monetary-policy/index.aspx At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve changed their monetary policy statement and removed a key word from the text. Leading up to the meeting, there was tremendous interest over the removal of this two-syllable word and what it meant for the path of future interest rates....

4/10/2015: Fed is done being patient: what this means for business

My latest article appearing on MB Financial https://www.mbfinancial.com/insights/manage/articles/2015/20150407-federal-reserve-monetary-policy/index.aspx   At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve changed their monetary policy statement and removed a key word from the text. Leading up to the meeting, there was tremendous interest over the removal of this two-syllable word and what it meant for the path of future interest...

4/10/2015: Guest Post: Asia’s Internet Revolution

THE BIG STORY: Asia’s Internet revolution — Part 2 FACEBOOK A MAJOR DRIVER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IN CAMBODIA  “Military police can no longer shoot at civilians, as it is instantly on and goes viral,” wrote Cambodian Opposition Member of Parliament Mu Sochua in anexclusive Op-Ed for Borderless News. Just like in the rest of Asia,...

4/10/2015: Transcript CapAlpha’s Jim Lucier on energy, ethanol, and Iowa!

Last week, I had a great conversation with Capital Alpha’s Jim Lucier on energy, ethanol, and Iowa.  I think it’s a must read for anyone who wants to understand how the ethanol mandate for gasoline was created and why it’s not likely to go away any time soon! Andy: Welcome to Engage with Andy Busch....

4/05/2015: Iran: my view and market implications

Two big pieces of news last week that continue to resonate into this week.  First, the P5+1 agreement with Iran on their nuclear industry.  Second, the softer than expected US employment data. At 9AM ET, I’ll be on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo discussing the Iranian nuclear agreement and what it means for the markets....

4/05/2015: What to listen for during Fed Speecharama this week

Dudley 4/6 Kocherlakota 4/7 Powell/Dudley & FOMC minutes 4/8 Lacker/Kocherlakota 4/10 After underwhelming US employment data, we’re going to the full Fed gabfest this week with lots of talk and minutes from the last meeting.  To me, the interesting components of the contradictory data were the negative revision, but the positive wage growth. The above...

3/30/2015: Why markets are stalling

From the WSJ Analysts estimate companies in the S&P 500 will earn 3.3% less in the first quarter than they did a year earlier, according to FactSet. That is far worse than the 5.8% growth they had projected at the start of the year. Indeed, it represents the sharpest marking down of earnings estimates over...

3/30/2015: #Bernanke to savers: drop dead and buy stocks!

  As we head into the week of Easter, lots of focus on central banks and the buck: Maundy Thursday a big day for currency traders ? ICYMI:  Yellen’s SF speech     Bernanke to savers:  drop dead and buy stocks!   China:   Bloomberg  China will lower down payment requirements on second homes to 40% and will...

3/09/2015: Quick view on NFP and what I’m watching this week

So Janet, how’s that 2/24 wait-and-see-on-wages plan working out? How’s 25bps on the 10yr in one week? How’s 30pts down in the S&P 500 on Friday? With UE at 5.5% and in the 5.2-5.5% range the Fed told us was their target, the markets are gearing up for removal of “patient” from the Fed’s 3/18...

3/08/2015: What I’m reading on IL & Chicago: fiscal time bomb ticking louder

Here’s a list of articles I’m scoping out for my research on the worst run state in the union: Report on IL state budget crisis: http://www.statebudgetcrisis.org/wpcms/wp-content/images/Illinois-Report-Revised.pdf Rauner going after patronage appointees http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/420825/rauner-moves-identify-state-patronage-hires-given-union-protection Rauner proposes hard freeze on pensions, good review of it and other states http://www.civicfed.org/iifs/blog/illinois-governor-proposes-‘hard-freeze’-pension-benefits Rauner withholds union fees/use of executive order http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/chi-unions-sue-rauner-over-fair-share-fees-20150305-story.html Interest groups...

3/01/2015: What I’m watching this week: DC & Markets

Here’s what I’m watching this week: DC: DHS funding fight:  it’s the gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats.  Did Boehner promise Pelosi a clean bill this week? Semi-annual report on the CFPB at HFS:  this govt. agency continues to hurt housing market with QRM and other regulations. SCOTUS:  oral arguments on King v....

2/23/2015: BU: Greece, DHS, TPA, Janet&Mario

Friday brought a deal between Greece and the Troika for a 4-month extension (kick-the-can) for their massive debt.  Greece is required to submit their austerity plan to the 3 as they attempt to continue to reform their economy away from it’s dominance by the state, protectionism, and cronyism.  (Hey, isn’t this the same thing that...

2/19/2015: S&P 500: Upward bias with a reluctant Fed

Just a quick reminder, the S&P 500 has been in a 130 point range since making the low of 1,820 back in October.  Back then, I created this 2yr daily graph of the S&P 500 with the caption:  Pattern has broken, but has the trend changed? Clearly, the trend has remained upward, but with more...

2/19/2015: #DHS, #ISIS, and #TedCruz!

  This week on Opening Bell, we discussed the problem the Republicans have with balancing their disapproval of President Obama’s executive orders on immigration and funding DHS.  Check it out as we cover DHS, Ted Cruz, ISIS and more! Here were my points I sent to the producer, see if I got to them all: Major points:...

2/09/2015: The graph that changed energy

Last week, Baker Hughes released a graph that helped support the price of oil.  It shows the dramatic drop in the number of rigs in the United States.  As Reuter’s John Kemp explained on my show, rig counts are helpful, but are not necessarily an accurate description of oil production as there are more than...

2/09/2015: Here’s what I’m watching this week

Here’s what I’m watching this week: Brian Williams death march, Maureen Dowd called him pathological.  Ouch. Obama-Merkel meeting:  what did the Germans learn from their meeting with Russia? Fallout US jobs data:  will the Fed speakers now all lose their patience or do the doves reign supreme? How likely is the repatriation holiday?  Lots of...

1/27/2015: Video: Andy’s 10m FOX interview on ECB, Greece, and Fed

Here’s my 10 minute interview on FOX where I covered the Greek election, ECB, and Fed. Take a watch and let me know what you think! Click here for the video. It’s 10 minutes, drink some coffee to stay awake! Seriously, it was great fun and will be doing more soon. One of the points...

1/26/2015: 2016: Why Bush and Christie need to learn from Walker

Over the weekend, we were given a glimpse into the 2016 US Presidential race as two events occurred. First, the Iowa Freedom Summit 2015 had a wide range of potential Republican candidates give speeches from Gov. Christie to Gov. Walker with Donald Trump and Sarah Palin providing additional entertainment. Second, the National Automobile Dealer’s Association...

1/22/2015: My Call on ECB: 36mths, E4 trillion, and Euro -15-20%

Today, the European Central Bank announced their long-awaited quantitative easing or LSAP (Large-Scale Asset Purchase) program. Here are the details from the introductory statement by ECB President Mario Draghi: First, it (ECB) decided to launch an expanded asset purchase programme, encompassing the existing purchase programmes for asset-backed securities and covered bonds. Under this expanded programme,...

1/19/2015: An extreme MLK day!

Happy Martin Luther King Day! In his “Letter from a Birmingham Jail”, Dr. King wrote: “So the question is not whether we will be extremists, but what kind of extremists we will be. Will we be extremists for hate or for love? Will we be extremists for the preservation of injustice or for the extension...

1/19/2015: SOTU Surprise: 2016 Dems can win by rejecting Obama

In the lead up to the State of the Union or SOTU address on Tuesday, President Obama has been actively leaking out most of the proposals he will announce during the speech. He’s spent the last two-weeks traveling the country rolling out pieces of it to garner support and momentum prior to the talk. SOTU’s...

1/16/2015: BU: SNB decision and who might be next

SNB Currency Decision Once upon a time, there was a country that wanted to be independent and left alone. This country didn’t want to join financial or political alliances despite the consequences of going on its own and being isolated from other nations in its area. This policy not only demanded political independence, but also...

1/07/2015: BU 1st 5 of 15 for 15: Stocks, bonds, ccys, Presidential race, and Fed policy for Q1

As we get rolling into 2015 and the markets are as nervous as a Chicago politician on a lie detector, I thought it would be fun to run through 15 themes for 2015 and what the outlook for them will be as we enter Q1 of the year. I realize it’s like drinking the healthy,...

1/05/2015: What happens the week of January 19th?

As we get rolling into 2015, the week of January 19th becomes an early focal point. Let’s take a look at what is scheduled: 1/19: MLK Day, so markets will be thin. China releases a big batch of economic data from GDP/retail sales/FAI/IP. Given the big moves in Shanghai Stock Market, this will be first...

1/05/2015: IL to be downgraded to below rattlesnake belly?

With his dramatic victory this fall, Republican Bruce Rauner becomes the governor for the state of Illinois. As most know, the “Land of Lincoln” is the worst fiscally run state in the Union. Illinois has pension debt over $100 billion and an unfunded health care burden estimated at over $56 billion. As of January 1st,...

1/05/2015: BU: Will it ever stop? Oil hits a new low

The chart says it all: light sweet crude put in a new 12 month low. This begs the question will it ever stop? The short-term answer appears to be no. I thought we started to stabilize with WTI around $55 and Brent around $60, but clearly this wasn’t the case. Currently, there remains two million...

12/17/2014: BuschUpdate Late Breaking: Fed, Russia, Jeb

Some end of the day thoughts: 1. Fed is as dovish as advertised. Combo of dots and “patient” tells us they are very cautious about upsetting the monetary apple cart for the economy and markets. The CPI and potential meltdown in Russia seal the deal. The “couple of meetings” comments I think were simply Yellen’s...

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