My apologies for all the Tweets last night (follow @abusch), but that was a fun debate to watch. I would add that it’s likely I’ll never again see two more intelligent debaters for a US Presidential campaign in my lifetime. By now, you know that Romney did exceedingly well and Obama seemed to be playing it safe. There are three important takeaways.
1. While I disagree with Arianna Huffington who said it was a “game changer” for Romney, this stopped the bleeding at the polls for Romney and he will see a bounce in the 10 swing states.
2. After a listless Obama performance, it’s difficult to believe that he will get the 39% Democratic voter turnout he received in 2008.
3. For the markets, this is a positive for Romney’s corporate tax reform and that is a big positive for big tech and big pharma. (See GPS)
The debate calendar is also favorable for Romney from here as well. Here’s the rest of the schedule from www.debates.org
October 11th Vice presidential debate:
Martha Raddatz, Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent, ABC News
Centre College, Danville, KY
October 16th Second presidential debate (town meeting):
Candy Crowley, Chief Political Correspondent, CNN and Anchor, CNN’s State of the Union
Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
October 22nd Third presidential debate:
Bob Schieffer, Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News and Moderator, Face the Nation
Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL
This gives Romney almost two weeks to enjoy before the next debate with his VP pick Ryan debating Biden in-between. President Obama will be very difficult to beat given his consistent lead in the swing states. Last night, Romney was given an opening. To win, the Romney campaign will need to go 3 for 3 in the remaining debates.
A Romney victory would be a short-term Risk-On event, US equity positive and US dollar negative. Medium term, a Romney victory is a big US dollar positive due to money flowing back to the country for investment and reduced risk of US debt/deficits.
