Monthly Archives: July 2010

One Small Example of Govt Created Uncertainty:

As the markets and businesses delve into the recent major pieces of legislation, they find the bills contained onerous provisions that mandate non-economic activity and increases in costs. As an example in section 9006 of the health care law, there is a requirement that vendors and small businesses are required to file 1099 forms for any goods purchases that total over $600. This would force all businesses, including small businesses, to file tax forms listing the amount of their annual transactions with vendors like their paper supplier, bottled water distributor and tax accountant.

The WSJ reports, “The reporting rules have … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Blinder & Zandi: Our Stimulus Worked!

The NYT reports today the findings of two Keynesian economists on the policy prescriptions they gave to solve the economic crisis. It worked! Honestly, can anyone argue that $862 billion of spending won’t help? Actually, they lump the Wall Street bailout, the bank stress tests, the emergency lending and asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, and the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus program all together to say that it all worked.

The better analysis would’ve extended the thought to: what are the costs and what are the benefits of these programs? Also, what would’ve been the costs and benefits of a … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Good Stress Results, IMF says Yuan Undervalued, the CAT Eff

IMF Says Yuan Undervalued: In a less than helpful statement, the IMF emphatically declared that the Chinese currency was “substantially undervalued.” However, the IMF did not say by how much and their full report may never be released to the public. Unless China allows, the IMF will not be able to publish their findings. The announcement of the undervaluation will likely bring heavy pressure from Europe and the US on the Chinese to allow the yuan to appreciate faster.

The CAT Effect in Shipping: Following up on my point from yesterday, both FedEx Corp and UPS raised profit forecasts in … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

More Media Today

Today at 12:40 CT, I’ll be appearing on WBBM Radio 780s Noon Business Hour discussing the European bank stress tests.

Today at 2:40 ET, I’ll be appearing on BNN discussing US financial regulatory reform and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony.… …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Leave a comment

Stress Tests Watered Down

The over-under for the European bank stress tests are 12 out of 91 fail the tests and need capital injections. Unlike the US stress tests, the European tests didn’t tell us the metrics or guidelines before the tests were run. This has generated uncertainty over exactly how these banks are going to perform. Today, most of this should be resolved.

Key metrics not used: a default by Greece and not stressing the hold-to-maturity bond portfolios.

My take is this: how many Greek banks fail? If there is no Greek bank failing the test, then how good can the tests be? … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

CNBC at 11 ET Today

Today at 11AM ET, I’ll be appearing on CNBC’s The Call discussing the European bank stress tests.… …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Bernanke Admission by Omission

I think the most “captivating” part of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was not what he said, but what he omitted. Yes, the unusually uncertain comment captured the essence of why businesses aren’t hiring with European debt crisis, health care, Fin Reg and taxes all creating the miasma.

However, the chairman didn’t address or dwell on the Seinfeld economic theory of a double dip. He brushed off comments asking for details of what the Fed would do to stimulate the economy if it sank again from these levels.

This was the point I was attempting to make last night on … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Five Questions for Ben Bernanke

Over the next two days, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will present his semiannual review of monetary policy to Congress. All of these are central for understanding the central problem of the US economy: lack of job creation.

Here are my five key questions he needs to answer for the markets.

Number one, why did the Fed downgrade their assessment of the economy and what sectors are generating to diminished outlook? This stems from their latest report on the economy that slightly reduced their ranges of growth and raised concerns over a double dip recession.

Number two, why did the … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Reagan Follow Up:

From Friday, I made the RR reference for how government works. I mentioned that the biggest losers from Fin Reg would be small to medium sized firms as lending remains constricted. Then I stated that the government would begin subsidizing the lending. Cue the music, this week the Senate is working on the Small Business Lending Fund Act of 2010 that creates a program for the US Treasury Secretary to make capital investments in eligible institutions in order to increase the availability of credit for small businesses, and for other purposes. It was introduced and sponsored by Rep. Barney Frank … …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Reagan on Fin Reg

The 2,330 leviathan is done and will be signed by President Obama next week. The bill leaves tremendous much of the rule making up to the big three: Federal Reserve, CFTC and SEC. The overlapping nature of the US regulatory system wasn’t addressed by the bill and there will be plenty of duplicitous regulation that will need clarification. The timeline for implementation is about 4 years and will be left to the discretion of the regulators. Remember, the genesis and goal of the legislation was to eliminate the risk of another financial meltdown that required taxpayer money to bailout firms.… …READ MORE

Posted in Front Page | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment
  • Recent TWEETS @abusch