Global Macro Strategy

  • What Andy is working on:

    • Quick Hits: Obama, Regs, Wolf

      A few quick hits to start the day:

      1. President Obama on ISIL: While it’s never good to have to eat crow, President Obama is reversing his “JV” thinking in ISIL or ISIS and putting the UN band back together to fight this terrorist group. The American public has shifted quickly away from isolationist views to one of engagement after the beheading of the American journalist. Obama’s approval ratings on foreign policy and leadership were at the low 30s and politically he needed to act. For the country and it’s citizenry, he also needed to act to deal with a group that not only threatens the US interests in the Middle East, but also has specifically made threats to the US. If any terrorist attack occurs on the anniversary on 9/11, it will be terrible and the President will bear the brunt of the criticism for not acting sooner.

      2. Government regulations are killing the economy and threaten energy production. From the great state of Illinois (poster child of how not to run a state), comes this wonderful example of how to ruin energy development in a state that has one of the highest unemployment rates in the union. Click here to read. Key quote, “I question whether a permit application will even be submitted for consideration.”

      3. FT’s Martin Wolf’s new book. This is a book I want to read and keep as a reference: “The Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned-and Have Still to Learn-From the Financial Crisis.” It’s a exhaustive tome on the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the problems that still exist. He’s a great writer and a must read in the FT. However, I do think that anyone who criticizes European governments for enacting austerity measures instead of spending more should try to keep in mind that the markets were destroying their bonds at the time and calling for the austerity. If European governments didn’t act, the interest rate on their bonds would have risen to a point were they would have been forced to default and potentially causee a situation that no one would’ve survived.