Global Macro Strategy

  • What Andy is working on:

    • BuschUpdate Late Breaking: Fed, Russia, Jeb

      Some end of the day thoughts:

      1. Fed is as dovish as advertised. Combo of dots and “patient” tells us they are very cautious about upsetting the monetary apple cart for the economy and markets. The CPI and potential meltdown in Russia seal the deal. The “couple of meetings” comments I think were simply Yellen’s way of saying it isn’t a one-way bet…when it really is and traders know it. (S&P up 40 today!)

      2. Russia. Can’t wait for the speech by Putin tomorrow! It could be a one of the great classics of all time of political-spin-for-the-home-crowd. “The Bear Never Asks Permission!” The Rosneft bond situation spooked the currency markets as well the crude oil collapse. Kerry’s comments yesterday on the Ukraine were an indication that the US doesn’t want Russia to sink further and create a default situation. The easing of Russian central bank rules for Russian banks liquidity is dangerous and makes their financial system unstable in the medium term. I’m getting the distinct feeling that oil remains uber volatile, but bottoms here in the high 50s/low 60s for Brent.

      3. Spoiler Alert: Jeb Bush to run in 2016! Yes, I know I was completely taken by surprise that Jeb Bush announced he’s announcing that he may announce he’s announcing. Let the great battle for Middle Republican Earth begin! (Yes, but who plays Frodo and who plays Sam?) Love the spat of headlines on this:

      How rusty is Jeb Bush?
      Jeb Bush is dismissing the GOP Base at His Own Peril
      Can Jeb Bush win Iowa?
      Will Jeb’s mom or wife back him?

      Ok, the last one was mine. Bottom line: it’s game on in the Jeb vs. Christie fight for Republican centrist donors. My view is quite simple, governors make the best presidents as they have experience not only running a large bureaucracy, but also compromising to get things done.

      ab